As Eric Adams spoke to reporters under a rain-soaked canopy outside Gracie Mansion yesterday morning, the biggest question about his term as mayor of New York seemed to be how soon it would end. His Democrats were already calling for his resignation before federal prosecutors formally accused Adams of defrauding the city and doing the bidding of the Turkish government. And in recent weeks, the heads of the nation’s largest police department and public school system resigned from his administration amid a series of investigations.

Adams, who has denied the allegations and vowed to stay in office, already had at least four serious competitors vying for re-election next year. Meanwhile, a much larger number of Democrats — including former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — are salivating at the prospect of a special election if Adams resigns.

But don’t assume he’s going anywhere.

“He will not resign,” predicted Mitchell L. Moss, a longtime observer of New York politics who has formally and informally advised some of its biggest stars over the past four decades. Moss, an NYU professor, has seen the scandals that have brought down governors like Cuomo (sexual harassment, which he denied) and Eliot Spitzer (prostitution), congressmen like Anthony Weiner (sending explicit photos to minors) and dozens of other elected officials Officials at lower levels of government. With few exceptions, New Yorkers accused of wrongdoing have not left quickly or quietly. Some have remained in office for quite a while. And that was true before a New Yorker convicted of 34 felonies won the Republican nomination for president. “We live in a different world than one where divorce would be out of the question,” Moss said. (In 2022, Adams and Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed Moss to an economic development committee, but he said he had no other ties to the mayor. “I met the guy once at a restaurant,” he told me. “That’s it .”)

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The charges against Adams are significant and there could be more to come; FBI agents searched his official residence yesterday morning, hours after news of the impending indictment broke. Prosecutors say Adams has solicited illegal campaign contributions and accepted bribes from foreign businessmen and at least one Turkish government official over the past decade. Because he used the donations to obtain public contributions through New York’s campaign finance system, he essentially stole $10 million from city taxpayers, according to the government.

New York has had its share of corruption and scandals, but Adams is the first sitting mayor to be indicted. (Coincidentally, one of his predecessors, Rudy Giuliani, was disbarred yesterday in Washington, DC, for helping Donald Trump attempt to overturn his 2020 election defeat.) But the details of the 57-page indictment against Adams are different in comparison those the government is still sparse about recent allegations against former Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey; The FBI seized gold bars and envelopes filled with cash from his home. Nor are the allegations as shocking as those against expelled Rep. George Santos of Long Island, who built his resume to win a congressional seat. Moss contends that the most damning allegation for Adams voters is that the mayor relied on the fire department to approve the opening of a skyscraper housing a new Turkish consulate that failed a safety inspection. “This is serious,” Moss said.

Democrats who have called for Adams to resign argue that the allegations threaten his ability to govern the city. Moss doesn’t think so. “People care about the mayor and want him to succeed, but the city works no matter who the mayor is,” Moss told me. Like other scandal-plagued leaders, Adams will likely “redouble his efforts” to prove he can still lead, which could allow him to retain the support of his base of black and Latino voters who helped him lead crowded Democratic primary then win the mayoralty in 2021. “They’re not going to abandon him,” Moss said.

According to New York City’s charter, Hochul could unseat Adams as mayor, but Moss believes that possibility is unimaginable – not least because of the governor’s great unpopularity. “She won’t fire an African-American mayor. Absolutely not,” he said. “She would be defeated within an hour.”

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Moss predicted that despite his legal problems, Adams would even start the primary election next June as the favorite. Cuomo, who is reportedly eyeing a run for mayor after stepping down as governor in 2021, is “damaged goods,” Moss said, and the four candidates who have expressed interest — current city controller Brad Lander; former Comptroller Scott Stringer; State Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos may struggle to unite progressive voters.

Adams has said he wants a quick trial, but the trial could drag on for months or longer. (He’s not even the highest-profile defendant that Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams is currently prosecuting.) The next president will have the power to replace Williams if he or she chooses. When Trump took office in 2017, he quickly ousted the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, Preet Bharara. That could happen again if Trump wins in November, Moss noted, with possible consequences for Adams’ case. “There is more uncertainty here than people realize.”