With the San Diego Padres breathing down the necks of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, it will be of utmost importance for the visitors to get the job done in this series against the Miami Marlins.

Bobby Miller is on the mound for LAD in tonight’s opener, and my predictions for the Dodgers vs. Marlins game have him playing a role in the over.

Let’s get into why with my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.

Prediction for Dodgers vs. Marlins

My best bet
Over 9.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Bobby Miller is still a young pitcher that many believe in, and while I’m one of those people, I have to admit that his performance this season is getting harder to grasp with each start.

The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander developed the ability to throw ground balls a year ago. It took a while for his strikeout skills to show up at that level, but once the strikeouts started piling up, he was a full-fledged ace.
He has regressed this season as his strikeout rate has dropped to 20.5%, and with his declining groundball rate and big jump in exit velocity, we have seen this young man post a .464 xwOBA on contact. What makes matters worse is his walk rate is 11.9%, which is a disastrous number.

Miller’s performance only seemed to get worse after returning from the minors. He allowed 10 home runs in five starts and 10 walks in his last three games. He did manage eight punchouts against the Angels a few weeks ago, but that’s no surprise given the matchup – it didn’t help much, either, as he allowed seven earned runs.

The Miami Marlins were surprisingly solid at bat a week ago, but have slipped in the past week and are ranked last in wRC+ over the last seven days. However, they have few strikeouts and have simply waited for help from an opposing pitcher.

Miller should provide that help, and this Dodger bullpen has also gotten a bit worse over the past calendar month, with a 3.71 FIP. The runs should come fast and furious as the Marlins deploy Darren McCaughan, who hasn’t missed a bat and has allowed five or more hits in each of his three starts this month, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings.

Shohei Ohtani tip: A winning combination

My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits, runs and RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)

My analysis
It’s difficult to praise Shohei Ohtani in this game because the totals suggest there will be a lot of LA runs and probably five batting appearances for the Japanese hitter.

I’m not keen on backing him to reach three total bases, and with an inexperienced arm on the mound that has had sporadic walk issues, it’s possible the patient Ohtani will reach base on a free pass more than once. However, you won’t find much value in backing him to score a run either, which leads me to that combo market.

Ohtani has now scored a run in his last two games and has two RBIs in each of them. With six multi-hit games in his last 13 games, this seems to be the market to target.

Dodgers vs. Marlins – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Over 9.5

Shohei Ohtani 3+ hits, runs and RBIs

Jonah Bride 2+ hits, runs and RBIs

While the Marlins are currently ice cold at bat, the same cannot be said for their 28-year-old veteran infielder.

Jonah Bride has a .318 batting average heading into the final week of play and has been the leadoff hitter 25 times – and over that span, he has a .318 batting average. He has two hits in each of his last two games, giving him 11 hits in his last nine games. Over that span, he has struck out six times and scored five runs.

Miller will struggle here, and a contact maestro like Bride is exactly the man to target. We also don’t have to worry about him giving up hits considering his incredibly low walk rate – and I think he’s an excellent third parlay entrant because of that.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Dodgers vs. Marlins

Dodgers vs Marlins live odds

Dodgers vs. Marlins Opening Odds

• Money line: Los Angeles -200 | Miami +165
• Execute line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-125) | Miami +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)

Dodgers vs. Marlins Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Dodgers started out as -184 favorites and were able to gain steadily over the course of the day – late Tuesday afternoon the moneyline exceeded the -200 mark.
• A convincing 93% of bets and 89% of money at DraftKings are on a Dodgers win.
• The total remains at the opening line of 9.5 runs with a slight but steady movement towards the over.
• “Over” accounted for 75% of total sales, but only 58% of tickets.

Dodgers vs. Marlins Trend

The Dodgers have hit the over in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.90 units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins here.

Game info Dodgers vs. Marlins

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Dodgers vs. Marlins Weather

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