Although several storms hit the Atlantic from the Gulf of Mexico to Africa this Labor Day – a traditionally active time of the hurricane season – none of them show any immediate signs of developing further.

The period of subpar performance across the Atlantic since Hurricane Ernesto roared out to sea two weeks ago tomorrow has been nothing short of surprising, and we have discussed in previous newsletters the myriad factors that may be at play.

The mystery continues this week as enthusiasm for the forecast models wanes as they once again struggle to find the next named storm candidate.

The change in mood could extend the mid-season rain delay into the first full week of September, a welcome development amid what virtually all seasonal forecasts predict will be an extremely active hurricane season.

Storms struggle to organize as unrest reaches the Caribbean

The main event in the Atlantic this week is a disturbance that is currently blowing over the easternmost Caribbean islands.

This weekend, the tropical wave struggled to produce a large storm as it moved westward through the central Atlantic. This is a common pattern for disturbances in the tropical Atlantic so far this season, as the intrusion of dry and stable air reduces the chances of development.

It will continue to struggle with wind shear on Monday and is expected to remain disorganized as it brings heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Tuesday.

As we discussed on Friday, the system is expected to move further west and deeper into the Caribbean, where conditions appear more favorable for development. However, models have significantly reduced the number of scenarios indicating development over the western Caribbean compared to a few days ago.

Although forecast models currently estimate the storm to be cautious, the National Hurricane Center continues to predict a moderate probability of development later this week as the disturbance moves into the central and western Caribbean, where winds at altitude will be light and sea temperatures historically high.

The good news for us in South Florida is that regardless of how things develop, the high pressure system, or whatever develops from it, should remain on a trajectory well south and west of us through next weekend as the high pressure heads north.

The most likely scenario is that the system will move into Central America this weekend and possibly emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

For now, we are monitoring developments in our Latin American neighbors, but we are not worried about Florida in the coming week.

Unrest in the Gulf continues, with continued threat of heavy rains along the Texas coast

A widespread low-pressure system along the Texas coast will make for an ugly Labor Day on most of the state’s Gulf Coast beaches.

The disturbance, which has been meandering just offshore for several days, could bring isolated flash flooding, including isolated roadway flooding and flooding of low-lying areas, from the Houston/Galveston area south to Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi.

It is unlikely that the storm will spread further before it makes landfall tomorrow, but heavy rain and flash flooding will remain the greatest danger until mid-week.

Possible development in the Far Eastern Atlantic

Forecast models are predicting a modest chance of a slow tropical wave developing off the coast of Africa this week. Although the system may bring some weather to Cape Verde over the next few days, it is expected to remain well out to sea for the rest of the week.