MIAMI – It’s been one of the quietest periods of tropical activity in over 50 years, but things are now getting hotter in the Atlantic as hurricane forecasters continue to monitor three tropical disturbances that could develop over the next week.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of severe weather in the Atlantic Ocean, while a third area is moving over the Caribbean, circling on a path that could eventually bring the storm into the warmer waters of the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico.
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Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist at Colorado State University, expects tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin to remain at normal or below-average levels until at least mid-September.
In fact, the period without tropical activity between August 12 and September 3 was the quietest period in the development of tropical weather in 56 years.
However, as we approach the statistical peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now is a good time to stock up on essential hurricane supplies and make sure you and your family have a plan of action in case activity continues to increase in the coming weeks.
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Tropical disturbances could occur in the Gulf of Mexico
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The first tropical disturbance is swirling over the Caribbean and moving rapidly westward. It is currently producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica, and parts of the central Caribbean.
The NHC said the system could develop later this week as the disturbance weakens over the northwestern Caribbean, or early next week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC gives the system only a low probability of development in the next week.
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Disturbances in the Central Atlantic have only a small window of time to develop
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Another tropical disturbance about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce erratic rainfall and thunderstorms.
The NHC said the development of that system, if it occurs at all, is likely to be slow over the next few days.
The tropical disturbance is forecast to move west-northwest over the next few days and by the end of the week the environmental conditions are likely to become unfavorable for further development.
The NHC gives the system a low probability of developing over the next seven days.
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Third tropical disturbance could bring heavy rains to Cape Verde
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The third tropical disturbance is located over the far eastern Atlantic and is also producing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The NHC said this system could slowly develop over the next few days as it slowly moves northwest. The system could also cause locally heavy rains in parts of Cape Verde on Wednesday.
The NHC gives the system only a low probability of development in the next week.