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Despite the bankruptcy in Atlanta, the Mets have reason for optimism
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Despite the bankruptcy in Atlanta, the Mets have reason for optimism

MILWAUKEE — Late Thursday morning, the Mets’ charter flight landed safely in Wisconsin, where it was sunny and warm and the ballpark is covered. They escaped Atlanta, dodged Hurricane Helene and ended up with a day off to prepare for a three-game series with the Brewers that begins Friday night.

Their circumstances in the final days of the regular season are obviously chaotic. The logistics could get wild. If you have a natural tendency to fear, stress, and assume the worst, you have plenty of material to work with.

But enough of the hand-wringing and the sometimes perceived persecution. Let’s look on the positive side. The Mets still have a long way to go, so they may even be able to avoid Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. Here’s a look at some of the reasons they like their chances:

They still remain in a position of power

This is the most important piece. The Mets (87-70) will wake up Friday in a virtual duel with the Diamondbacks (88-71) for the second and third wild-card spots in the National League. Atlanta (86-71) is one game behind both.

Here is the magic number math:

  • Any combination of four Mets wins and Diamondbacks losses will secure the Mets a spot in the playoffs. Remember, if they finish with the same record, the tiebreaker will be in the Mets’ hands since they won the season series (4-3).
  • Any combination of five Mets wins and Atlanta losses will secure the Mets a spot in the playoffs. The season series tiebreaker is up for grabs here; Atlanta leads 6-5.

While the Mets visit the Brewers, Atlanta hosts the Royals (weather pending) and the Diamondbacks face the Padres (who are close to securing the top wild card).

Sean Manaea will pitch against Milwaukee right-hander Frankie Montas on Friday. Pitching matches on Saturday and Sunday have yet to be determined.

It’s not clear whether the Mets and Atlanta would play Monday if those games were just deciding seedings. But if the Mets secure at least a playoff spot by the end of Sunday, they can send it in on Monday if necessary – rest key hitters, not use any of their key pitchers, etc.

The Mets got the best out of Atlanta

This is no small thing. They can talk all they want about how they didn’t think about the franchise’s late-season history against Atlanta (fine) and how these Mets are very different from the 2022 team that failed there at this time in the season has (true). but still: Tuesday evening felt terribly familiar.

They made a lot of quick outs, played sloppy defense and had a poor outing for one of their best starters. They would never admit it, but it’s easy to imagine them thinking about it.

Maybe the rain saved them from themselves. At least for now, they can do their business in another city.

The Mets were missing Atlanta’s two best pitchers (for now)

They were originally scheduled to face likely NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale on Wednesday (against David Peterson) and left-hander Max Fried on Thursday (against Manaea).

There was also a version of events where the Mets would have seen Sale Wednesday... and then again on Monday for a one-off make-up.

Instead, none of these things happened. That’s a marginal advantage.

The Mets could always get another sale; Atlanta hasn’t set a starting day for him and it will depend on how the league leaders shake out over the weekend. It could take until Monday.

Francisco Lindor has two extra days to heal

Even if Francisco Lindor appeared to be in good enough shape to play on Wednesday – he was in the lineup for a game that likely would never be played – two extra days to recover from a back injury couldn’t hurt.

By Friday, Lindor will have pitched one inning in 13 days. This has dragged on longer than the Mets expected, but his return will be helpful, especially if they decide to keep Luisangel Acuna’s hot slugger over center field in the lineup.

The Brewers are playing for nothing

They are considered number 3 in the NL. Starting Tuesday, they will host the No. 6 seed in the best-of-three first round – Mets, Atlanta or Diamondbacks. As the Mets fight for their playoff life, the Brewers’ top priority will be getting through the weekend healthy.

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