The New York Jets’ enthusiasm for Las Vegas Raiders wideout Davante Adams has never been much of a secret.

From the moment the Jets acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers in April 2023, Adams became a priority trade target on their radar. So much so that shortly after acquiring Rodgers, the Jets’ front office began assessing the financial implications of Adams’ remaining contract with the Raiders. And by the Oct. 31 trade deadline last fall, the Jets had inquired about Adams’ availability multiple times, according to sources familiar with the two teams.

Each time, the Jets were told that Adams was unavailable, and then-Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels prioritized wins over draft assets as he tried to stave off a firing from team owner Mark Davis. But the day after the trade deadline, McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler still lost their jobs as Davis made yet another sweeping change to realign the franchise.

The Jets watched from afar throughout, buoyed by the belief in the team’s front office that a trade route for Adams would eventually open. And now the time has finally come, at Adams’ request. And as it happens, it comes at a critical time in the Jets’ season – against the Minnesota Vikings in London, against the Buffalo Bills at home and against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road – that could ultimately impact New York’s prospects for the rest of the year.

Even though these stars appear to align, there are numerous complications that continue to cloud any Adams deal.

Starting with…

How much is Adams worth on the trade market?

I’ve spoken to several league executives who share a similar opinion: The Raiders’ bounty of a second-round draft pick and additional upside is an exorbitant reach for Adams given his age and contract complications. The most considered realistic guardrails would be consistent with two deals:

No. 1: The asset swap between the Bills and Houston Texans for wideout Stefon Diggs. In this deal, the Bills sent Diggs plus a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to Houston in exchange for the Texans’ 2025 second-round pick. Broken down to a simpler 1-for-1 perspective, the total value of this deal was seen by most executives as the Bills receiving a third-round pick for Diggs.

No. 2: The asset swap between the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears that gave the Bears a 2024 fourth-round pick for wideout Keenan Allen.

If these two deals determine Adams’ value, he’ll be somewhere between a third- and fourth-round pick. However, two well-known caveats have been raised.

“If the Raiders are willing to eat up some of his (2024) salary, that could buy a better pick or convince a team to add some kind of performance escalator that adds another draft asset,” an NFC executive said. “For example, a third-rounder in 2025, and you could agree to add a fourth (rounder) in 2026 if the Jets get to the conference title game or something like that.”

Another NFC evaluator added: “The cost depends on how desperate a franchise is to trade for him.” I don’t think he’ll have a huge market at a second-round price. But they might get that if someone is really desperate.”

“Everyone basically knows that (the Raiders) either have to trade him or keep him for the rest of the season if he doesn’t want to be there,” one AFC general manager said. “That’s not going to have a big impact on (Raiders GM Tom Telesco) in the eyes of other teams.”

What are the realistic trading goals for Adams?

The answer to this depends on leverage. Technically, Adams has no say in preventing a move to another team or dictating where he wants to go. He has one tool on the table: If he doesn’t like a potential destination, he can tell any team that signs him that he doesn’t want to be there and won’t restructure the final two years of his contract that are scheduled to put him in to pay $36.25 million in 2025 and 2026.

If he does that, he essentially turns himself into a short-term rental for an acquiring team, which would likely reduce the value a club would give up in a deal… or potentially destroy it altogether. At this point, it is extremely unlikely that any team trading for him will be willing to pay the $72.5 million he is owed in the final two years of his contract. And no salary is guaranteed in any of these years, so you can easily part with him after 2024.

With this in mind, I think the following are possible travel destinations…

New York Jets

This is the most likely location for Adams and I don’t think he’s particularly close.

It’s clear where he wants to be, and the Jets and Rodgers would absolutely love to have him there. The Jets also have an additional 2025 third-round pick from the Detroit Lions available. And while I would normally say that general manager Joe Douglas is a hard sell in trades and would immediately scoff at giving up a second-rounder and more for Adams, Douglas knows his job is on the line.

There’s no point in protecting a 2025 second- or third-rounder if you’re not there to make the selection. And the desperation factor could be pretty big for the Jets (2-2) if they lose this weekend’s game against the Minnesota Vikings (4-0) in London.

One more thing worth mentioning here: One NFC executive pointed out that Haason Reddick’s reluctance could play a role here too. Reddick is so pleased with the Jets’ standoff that he could report to the Raiders for the remainder of the 2024 season if he is dealt there. Perhaps Reddick and Adams could become the core of a deal that frees up players who don’t want to be in their current spots.

New Orleans Saints

I have no doubt that this is one of Adams’ favorite teams. Like Rodgers in New York, it would pair him with a quarterback he knows: former Raiders and Fresno State teammate Derek Carr.

Another interesting twist? Former Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler, who was involved in acquiring Adams from the Green Bay Packers, currently works in an advisory role for Saints GM Mickey Loomis. At least Ziegler can give the Saints some good inside information about an Adams trade.

The obstacles preventing this deal are the price of the trade assets and an extremely tight salary cap situation that will force the Saints to restructure and cut ties with several players as early as next offseason.

Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens

Both are in a similar situation to the Saints. I think Adams would agree to a trade to either one if he couldn’t make it to the Jets or Saints, but he would have a ranking of preferences between the two. Either way, the Bills and Ravens would have to move some money to get him under a tight cap hit this season — and rework his contract beyond 2024. Additionally, the Bills and Ravens would have to demand a second-round pick plus another upside currently too rich for the Bills and Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers

While I believe the Steelers are interested in Adams, I don’t think they are on the list of teams he would most like to go to. And there are the same problems with the high price.

San Francisco 49ers

A potential nuclear option if Adams has nothing else available, but he would just be a rental for the 49ers for the rest of the season… and the Raiders would definitely have to eat up some of Adams’ remaining 2024 salary due to the 49ers looking to 2025 to create as much cap space as possible.

Dallas Cowboys

I can’t imagine it happening and have no idea the Cowboys want to pursue him. It’s more of a “brand” connection than anything else. He would just be a rental at best and Dallas needs as much cap space as possible to advance to 2025 for extensions next offseason.

Washington commanders

I would imagine this is a wild card in the group.

The Commanders have something going on with quarterback Jayden Daniels and have the wiggle room to not only sign Adams now, but also work out a solid deal that could keep him for 2025 and maybe even 2026 if he still has tread on his tires. It all depends on whether the Commanders want to use the momentum they have now and try to accelerate their postseason schedule and Daniels’ development.

I still think the asking price scares Washington away.

Who has the desperation to make a Davante Adams trade?

That’s really what it could come down to, especially if the Raiders negotiate hard and insist on getting a second-round pick and upside from an Adams trade.

I continue to view the Jets as the team most likely to enter desperation mode and also have the connective tissue necessary to get the most out of Adams right away. But one AFC executive made an interesting point: Telesco has a fairly conservative track record – especially when it comes to trades. Even if Adams’ salary is unsustainable over the next two seasons, he may refuse to accept what he believes is a low compensation offer for him.

“You never know, (Telesco) might just decide to stick it out and try to make the best of it even if there is an issue (between Adams and head coach Antonio Pierce),” the executive said. “I doubt that’s how it works, but you never know when it’s going to be a GM who doesn’t have a track record on a number of deals.”