Although Jed Hoyer confirmed in a radio interview last week that the Chicago Cubs are expected to finish the season above the first luxury tax threshold, there is no indication that they are working to get below that limit by placing high-paid players on the waiver list, nor are there any signs that spending will be affected next season.

Still, according to multiple conversations with people familiar with the team’s discussions, there are no signs that the Cubs are reversing course from last offseason and starting to spend aggressively at the top end of the market, which would seemingly rule out a pursuit of the crown jewel of the upcoming free-agent class, Juan Soto.

In February The athlete reported that with the signing of Cody Bellinger, the Cubs understood that they were essentially past the luxury tax when factoring in the typical roster turnover during the season. In separate radio interviews, both Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins confirmed this, with Hawkins giving several examples of roster turnover, including long-term injuries leading to players being called up.

The acquisition of Isaac Parades reinforced the impression that management was not concerned about the luxury tax threshold when making short-term acquisitions. Since Paredes earns about $2.6 million more than Christopher Morel, the move meant additional salary.

Accurately calculating a team’s salary for luxury tax purposes can be complicated, especially because even mundane roster changes can have an impact. When players are placed on the 60-day injured list — the Cubs currently have six players on that list — they accumulate amounts that are deducted from the tax. The same goes for players who are then placed on the 40-man list and called up to the major leagues. Any benefits the team provides a player can also be counted toward the tax. These costs can range from hours on a private jet to hotel suites en route. With all these variables, sources said, front offices often work with projections rather than exact numbers.

After signing Bellinger, the Cubs expected to be roughly at their current luxury tax payroll, bringing them within the budget ownership gave them at the start of the offseason. Going over the first limit wasn’t an option because of that budget, although it’s still possible to get under the tax limit. That would require releasing high-salary players and taking their money off the books, which sources say isn’t currently an option.

While such action would be possible if the Cubs were to drop out of the race entirely and raise the white flag, it seems that such action would have to be specifically mandated by the owners. But even then, there is no indication that it would have a significant impact on offseason spending, nor is there expected to be a significant change in payroll in any direction.

The CBA should also give the Cubs some leeway, as the first luxury tax threshold is set to rise from $237 million to $241 million next season.

The most serious consequences of exceeding the threshold could hit the Cubs in the winter when they sign a free agent to whom their previous team made a qualifying offer. This would cost the Cubs their second and fifth highest draft picks as well as $1 million from overseas, but it is not currently expected to affect the team’s strategy.

In the past, chairman Tom Ricketts has suggested that it would make sense for the franchise to reset the luxury tax every few years if the Cubs go over the luxury tax threshold. But next season, that may not be an issue because it’s still possible the Cubs could end up under the threshold or set a budget below the threshold for next season.

In any case, the Cubs will have to clear at least $50 million from their books this winter. That amount could nearly double if Bellinger opts out of his contract and reliever Héctor Neris doesn’t make the 14 appearances needed to earn a player option in his contract. In that case, the Cubs could clear nearly $90 million from their books.

Fans may want the Cubs to spend all that and more, but that kind of spending may not be in the cards this winter. The priority remains to strengthen the offense, which means improving the catcher position. Strengthening the bullpen also remains on the to-do list, though the Cubs’ strategy there won’t deviate much from what has been done in the past. Spending top dollar on the best free agent reliever was not part of the front office’s game plan. The Cubs will also be looking for a worthwhile offer to sign a starting pitcher.

Those who expected Soto to be part of the Cubs’ offseason plans will likely be disappointed.

The current front office has never indicated that it would be willing to make the kind of mega-deal it would take to attract a 25-year-old superstar who consistently plays at an MVP level.

The same goes for Corbin Burnes. Burnes, who is about to turn 30, is a client of Scott Boras like Soto and will likely seek one of the most lucrative contracts a pitcher has ever received. He probably won’t fit into the plans of Hoyer and Co. Unless he finds the market he hopes for in terms of both years and average annual value, it remains unlikely that Burnes will end up with the Cubs.

Regardless of the Cubs’ offseason direction, one thing remains clear: The pressure is on to build a playoff contender in 2025.

Fans are tired of talking about a solid season or metrics that suggest better times are ahead. The way management ultimately executes on those better times may not be what fans envision, but there is an awareness that the clock is ticking. Ultimately, the management mantra that Theo Epstein preached and Hoyer repeated applies: They just have to be right.

(Top photo of Cubs President Jed Hoyer: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)