We’re more than two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it’s time for our first look at the Cy Young and MVP contests in both leagues. Yesterday, the AL Cy Young race was examined – today it’s the NL’s turn.

If you’re not familiar with my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluating current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach based on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher and calculate the damage they “should have allowed” based on their mix of exit velocity and launch angle. This is expressed by their Adjusted Contact Value – 100 is league average, the lower the number the better. Then I add the Ks and BBs back together to determine each pitcher’s “true” ERA-, then spread it out across their total innings to determine their “true” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While it makes sense to use replacement level as a baseline for most types of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful when evaluating elite player performance, such as for award voting, Hall of Fame worthiness, etc.

Many observers have taken the interesting view that there hasn’t been a truly outstanding pitcher in the NL this season, opening up the possibility that Pirates’ rookie phenom Paul Skenes might win the award. I say hold the phone – the top three pitchers on this list all have more TPRAA than AL leader Tarik Skubal.

First, let’s take a look at some mainstream NL prospects that don’t fare so well according to my method. The Giants Logan Webb throws tons of innings and gets tons of ground balls. However, he gives up crucial contact on all types of bats and actually has a below-average “Tru” ERA of 109, which is even worse than his 87 ERA and 76 FIP. Like Webb, the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray and Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez ranks in the top 10 in Fangraphs WAR. Sanchez’s average launch angle of 1.5 degrees is the lowest among NL qualifiers, but his strikeout rate is low and he allows a ton of line drives. Gray’s Adjusted Contact Score is pretty high at 117, better than only Jose Quintana and Patrick Corbin among current NL ERA qualifiers. Now let’s get to the top contenders.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Brewers Freddy Peralta (9.9 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average) strikes out and walks a lot of batters, and is only an average range contact manager (102 Adjusted Contact Score), despite having the second-highest pop-up rate among NL qualifiers. His 82 “Tru” ERA- is better than his 95 ERA- and 97 FIP-, but I’m starting to think he’ll only ever be pretty good, not great. The Padres’ Michael King (10.2 TPRAA) has been a revelation in his first full season as an MLB starter. He is among the best NL starters at limiting both the average authority of liners (90.0 mph) and grounders (80.5 mph), making him an average range contact manager despite a high liner rate allowed and an Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 109. His 82 “Tru” ERA- is slightly better than his 84 ERA- and 87 FIP-. The Cubs’ left-hander Shota Imanaga (11.1 TPRAA) has one of the lowest walk rates among NL qualifiers and is an extreme fly ball generator (average allowed exit velocity 19.5 degrees) who causes a lot of pop-ups. He has cooled off a bit after a brilliant start, but has established himself as a rock-solid starter (79 “Tru”, 76 ERA, 86 FIP).

The Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez (12.5 TPRAA) is currently injured and could soon be off this list. He is the best NL qualifier when it comes to limiting fly ball authority (58 Adjusted Contact Score) and is also one of the best grounder generators among NL starters. His 77 “Tru” ERA is slightly behind his 70 ERA and 73 FIP. No one strikes out more hitters than the Padres’ Dylan Cease. However, he is the worst contact manager (108 Adjusted Contact Score) in the NL Top 10. He allows a lot of fly balls and they are often hit hard (119 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). His 78 “Tru” ERA is almost equal to his 76 FIP- and significantly better than his 88 ERA-.

THE FIVE BEST STARTERS

#5 – RHP Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) – 14.4 TPRAA, 76 “Tru”, 97 ERA, 90 FIP

What? Stay tuned. Pfaadt has one of the lowest walk rates among qualified NL starters. His K rate is decent but nothing special these days, but quietly Pfaadt has been one of the better contact managers in the NL this season (83 adjusted contact value). He has been extremely unlucky with fly balls this season (129 unadjusted vs. 92 adjusted contact value). I think he will get back toward average levels in terms of contact management – his low 17.3% liner rate allowed has contributed to his success, and that stat tends to be pretty volatile.

#4 – RHP Zack Wheeler (Phillies) – 19.3 TPRAA, 69 “Tru”, 67 ERA, 82 FIP

Now to the heavy hitters. Wheeler’s K/BB profile has seen better days, but he consistently combines the essential skills of a starting pitcher – bat-missing, walk minimization, contact management, and toughness – better than almost anyone else. His minimum standard is extraordinarily high, and his contact management performance (81 Adjusted Contact Score, tied for second in the NL) is as good as ever. Like Corbin Burnes in the AL, Wheeler is waiting for the players currently ranked above him to falter – and that could very well happen.

#3 – RHP Hunter Greene (Reds) – 20.8 TPRAA, 65 “Tru”, 66 ERA, 80 FIP

Greene has always had the ability to hit fast, but he’s struggled with control and contact management in the past. Control is still a bit of an issue, but somehow Greene has flipped the switch and become the best contact manager (by far with an Adjusted Contact Score of 72) among NL starters this season. This is an even more dramatic turnaround in this area than Tarik Skubal’s, and it has put both on the brink of earning a title. His Adjusted Liner Contact Score of 90 is the best in the NL, and his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 71 is top-notch. That he can run an average launch angle of 19.9 degrees in THIS ballpark and excel at it really says something.

#2 – RHP Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers) – 22.6 TPRAA, 61 “Tru”, 89 ERA, 69 FIP

It’s a recurring theme – many of the pitchers at the top of the NL and AL rankings never pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. That’s true of Glasnow, and he’s been at it for a while. He missed some time this season due to injury, but has been overwhelming when healthy. His K-rate is the highest among NL qualifiers, and he’s actually been a pretty solid contact manager as well (86 Adjusted Contact Score). As with Pfaadt, that contact management performance was partly due to a low liner rate that’s probably not sustainable.

#1 – Left-hander Chris Sale (Braves) – 24.7 TPRAA, 56 Tru, 65 ERA, 59 FIP

While I have no idea if the oft-injured Sale can keep it up to the finish line, I’m certainly rooting for him. A lot of time has been spent debating who between Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer had the best career. Well, that guy was right up there with the rest of the team until his 28th season in 2017. He hasn’t qualified for an ERA title since. A lot of people think Paul Skenes is a legitimate NL Cy contender. Skenes was great (see below), but before you even get into the innings total, Sale was QUALITATIVELY a better pitcher than Skenes (56 “Tru” – to Skenes’ 59). The lanky left-hander is way ahead in all the major categories – K and BB rate – and is 2nd in Adjusted Contact Score at 81. As always, it will be a matter of the volume of innings with this guy and he is holding up well in that regard so far.

The elephant in the room

RHP Paul Skenes (Pirates) – 16.1 TPRAA, 59 Tru, 48 ERA, 67 FIP

Skenes is great, and it’s pretty remarkable that he ranks a strong 5th in the NL in TPRAA when you ignore the ERA eligibility requirement. But as I said in the Sale comment above, Sale has been better than Skenes on an innings-per-inning basis, even before you get to their respective inning totals. The respective K/BB profiles of Skenes (32.3% K, 5.7% BB) and Sale (32.2%, 5.8% BB) are eerily similar. They’re also pretty close from a contact management perspective – Sale has an Adjusted Contact Score of 81, with Skenes right behind at 84. One potential flaw to watch for with Skenes going forward – he’s allowed pretty heavy fly ball contact (109 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score).

Sale currently leads NL starters in Fangraphs WAR with 4.1, followed closely by Glasnow (3.6), Sanchez (3.5) and Cease (3.4). There’s another group of five, including Greene and Wheeler, who are closely spaced between 3.1 and 3.3 WAR. There’s no need to expand this field to include surefire Rookie of the Year Skenes — there are plenty of worthy Cy candidates here.