CNN
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The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is extremely close, with Harris’ support based on her stronger personal appeal, while Trump can draw on a diehard voter base and a major advantage in handling the economy to carry on despite less positive views of him, his empathy and his temperament.

According to a new CNN SSRS poll, 48% of likely voters nationwide support Harris and 47% support Trump. That gap suggests there is no clear frontrunner in the race. About 2% plan to vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver and 1% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Both Harris and Trump have positive support from the majority of their supporters – 72% of Trump’s supporters say they would rather vote for him than against Harris, while 60% of Harris’ supporters say they would rather vote for her than against him.

That’s a big shift in voters’ attitudes toward the race compared to earlier this summer. In the last national CNN poll in July, shortly after President Joe Biden ended his presidential campaign and Harris threw her hat in the ring for the Democratic nomination, Harris’ supporters were evenly split between favorable supporters of her and those driven by anti-Trump sentiments. And Biden’s supporters said in previous polls that they were largely expressing their opposition to Trump with their vote.

The latest poll shows Harris and Trump roughly tied among likely independent voters – Harris 45%, Trump 41% – with the gender gap particularly pronounced among independents. Among independent women, Harris is 51% and Trump 36%. Among independent men, Trump is 47% and Harris 40%. There is little difference between men and women in either party.

The gender gap is also more pronounced among white voters in the poll (58% of white men vote for Trump, 35% for Harris, while 50% of white women vote for Trump and 47% for Harris). Among black and Latino voters, however, the gender gap is very small. Harris leads significantly among likely voters under 30 (55% support her, 38% support Trump) and among likely black voters (79% Harris, 16% Trump) and Latino voters (59% Harris, 40% Trump).

Just under 2 percent of likely voters say they have not yet decided on a candidate, and another 12 percent have already decided on one but think they may still change their minds.

The poll suggests that Harris has begun to build a more positive public image overall, overtaking Trump on several issues affecting the public’s perception of her.

Since becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris’ approval rating in CNN polls has risen to its highest level since immediately before her and Biden’s inauguration in January 2021 (currently 46% approval versus 48% disapproval among likely voters). Trump’s approval rating, on the other hand, has remained stable (currently 42% approval versus 55% disapproval among likely voters).

Although many voters are still forming opinions about the major vice presidential candidates, Harris’ choice for running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has a significantly better approval rating (36% for, 32% against) than Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance (30% for, 42% against).

A slight majority or more of likely voters nationwide say Harris’ temperament (58%), background and life experience (56%), ability to understand their problems (52%), leadership skills (51%) and vision for the country (51%) are consistent with what they want in a president. For Trump, by contrast, about half or fewer of likely voters say his vision for the country (49%), leadership skills (49%), background (46%), ability to empathize with people like them (46%) or temperament (38%) are consistent with what they want in a president.

What’s notable, however, is that in this split race, 51% of respondents say each of them has policy positions on major issues that align with what they want in a president, and even more of them say Trump’s positions are exactly what they want in a president (29% for Trump versus 18% for Harris).

This is true even though Trump is generally considered “too extreme” in his views and positions than Harris (54 percent of likely voters say Trump is, 42 percent say Harris is). A small group of those who see Trump as too extreme still vote for him: He is supported by 10 percent of likely voters who consider his views and policies too extreme, while Harris is supported by only 4 percent of those likely voters who consider them too extreme.

Trump also benefits from the 51 percent of likely voters who say that, looking back, his time as president was more of a success than a failure. And Harris could be hurt by the widespread perception of Biden’s time as a failure (61 percent see it that way, and only 19 percent of that group say they support Harris for president).

Likely voters overall say they trust Trump more than Harris on economic policy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration policy (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Even among those who say Trump’s views and policies are too extreme, 15% say they trust him more than Harris on economic policy, and the same share say so on immigration policy.

Likely voters generally favor Harris’ approach to abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris vs. 31% Trump), unifying the country (43% Harris vs. 30% Trump), and protecting democracy (47% Harris vs. 40% Trump).

About 4-in-10 likely voters (41%) say the economy is the most important issue for them when choosing a presidential candidate, followed by protecting democracy (21%), immigration (12%) and abortion (11%). Harris’ voters are more likely to say protecting democracy (37%) is the most important issue, ahead of the economy (21%) or abortion (19%), while Trump’s supporters focus on the economy (61%) and immigration (21%).

Voters who prioritize the economy largely focus on inflation, regardless of who they support for president. A majority (55%) of them say in a follow-up question that inflation is the most important economic issue on their minds when choosing candidates. Only federal spending (12%) and taxes (11%) are in double digits. Inflation is still a common issue even among those for whom the economy is not the most important issue: 32% of this group say inflation is the most important economic issue, 16% jobs and wages, 15% federal spending, 13% housing costs and 12% taxes.

Seventy-seven percent of registered voters say the current tone of American politics and political debates encourages violence among some people. The same is true of the share of voters who felt this way in September 2019. In the new poll, 72 percent say the level of political violence in the U.S. is a major problem. Registered voters are more likely to expect political violence to get worse rather than better, regardless of which candidate is elected this year. However, more (57 percent) say it would get worse if Trump is elected than if Harris is elected (42 percent).

Democrats are more likely than Republicans or independents to view the recent tone as encouraging violence (81% of registered Democratic voters versus 76% of registered independent voters and 73% of registered Republican voters). But partisans on both sides agree on the severity of the problem (75% of Democratic voters and 73% of Republican voters call it a big problem; slightly fewer independent voters, 69%) feel the same way.

Democratic voters are much more likely to say the risk of political violence will get worse if Trump wins (86%) than Republican voters say the risk will get higher if Harris wins (65%). Republican voters are also more likely to say things will get worse if their own candidate wins (30%) than Democratic voters say they foresee a higher risk of violence if Harris wins (18%).

Forty-seven percent of all registered voters say they would be “scared” if Trump won the election, and 45 percent would feel similarly if Harris won. Forty-one percent would be “angry” if Trump won, slightly more than those who would feel that way if Harris won (37 percent).

And there’s a notable shift compared to 2016 among registered voters who say they would feel more positive emotions if Trump won: 41 percent of voters say they would be happy if Trump won, compared to just 27 percent who felt that way in June 2016, and 38 percent say they would be proud, compared to 24 percent who said that eight years ago. The share who say they would be embarrassed has dropped, from 56 percent then to 48 percent today.

Harris evokes more positive emotions than the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton did in the summer of 2016. If Harris wins, 41 percent of registered voters would be proud and 40 percent would be happy, compared to 35 percent and 29 percent who said the same about Clinton back then. The proportion of those who say they would be embarrassed if Harris won (41 percent) is about the same as for Clinton (39 percent).

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS online and by phone from September 19-22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide selected from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll, weighted by their projected likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the entire sample of registered voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. It is the same for likely voters and larger for subgroups.