After a stunningly poor week of baseball in which the Atlanta Braves appear to have hit rock bottom with their pitching staff, the Braves are surely hoping that a change of scenery, different park factors, and a start from Chris Sale can help get things back on track in that regard when they face the San Francisco Giants.

I will be very brave and a really hot shot out here and suspect we’re in for a pitcher’s duel between these two teams tonight. I’ll talk more about Chris Sale later, as this is probably a good time to talk about Blake Snell. While this hasn’t been Snell’s best season overall, it’s pretty likely that the Braves are catching Snell in both the wrong place and the wrong time. Although he allowed three runs to the Nationals in his last appearance, he threw a no-hitter in the start before that in Cincinnati and hasn’t allowed a run since returning from the IL on July 9 at Oracle Park.

In fact, Snell has a 29 ERA and a 57 FIP in six starts since returning from the injury that cost him June of this year. Compare that to his 239 ERA and 119 FIP in the six starts before his trip to the IL, and it’s basically night and day, and a clear dividing line between what was going on with him before and what’s going on with him right now. So it really wouldn’t be surprising if the Braves’ lineup was kept quiet for much of this game — at least while Snell is out there.

Meanwhile, the Braves are surely hoping Chris Sale can do the same for quite a while tonight. Although Sale has “slowed down” a bit (that is, he’s allowed at least two runs in each of his last three starts. Oh, how awful!), he’s still been incredibly consistent and productive on the mound for the Braves this season, and it would be very hard to imagine that changing tonight. Sale was last with the Giants on July 3, going six innings and striking out nine batters in a game the Braves eventually won 3-1.

As for the two offenses, the Braves are the better team at bat—that was one of the few bright spots after last week’s devilish events. Atlanta’s offense has a collective batting average of .264/.331/.503 here so far in August, with a wOBA of .355 and a wRC+ of 128. While a lot of that has to do with Coors Field being particularly Coors-Field-y last weekend, they did end that nightmarish Brewers series by scoring some runs, so hopefully the offense will travel to San Francisco like it did to Colorado. Meanwhile, the Giants enter this game with a collective slash average of .241/.302/.438 with a wOBA of .319 and a wRC+ of 108. That’s absolutely respectable and it makes sense that they were in good shape and put themselves in the race for the postseason.

That being said, it will likely just come down to whose pitching holds up tonight. Atlanta’s pitching staff has posted an astonishing ERA- of 170 for the month of August so far — as a reminder, this is like wRC+, except you want a lower number and 100 is exactly average. While Atlanta’s FIP- (109) and xFIP- (82) in August suggest they’ve probably had a bit of bad luck (and their BABIP in the Colorado series definitely confirms that), it’s still something they need to break out of as soon as possible. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s collective ERA- and FIP- are in a solid range of 94 and 104, respectively, with an xFIP- of 91. Even though Atlanta’s pitching staff has been significantly better throughout the season, it’s clear they’re back in “prove mode” to show that the last few weeks were an exception rather than a sign of things to come.

I think we all need the Braves to play something resembling a normal baseball game at this point, and a win would be just fantastic. As Stephen mentioned, despite some humiliating baseball of late, the Braves are still right in the thick of this race for the postseason, and as long as they can find a way to get out of this slump, perhaps this terrible form will be a distant memory in the near future. For now, though, Chris Sale absolutely needs to be the stopper, and the offense needs to maintain its form. If that happens, the Braves can start this four-game series in the Bay Area with a win and start spreading positivity again. Boy, do we all need that!

Game info

Date/time of the game: Monday, August 12, 9:45 p.m. ET

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California

TV: Bally Sports South

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93,7 FM The Fan