Virginia Tech was the ACC’s least impressive non-conference team, while Miami was the league’s most impressive team.

The two opening conferences play against each other on Friday evening in Miami Gardens. For this reason, I believe the Hokies can cover an inflated spread.

Virginia Tech vs Miami odds

Virginia Tech vs Miami Prediction

While Miami’s Cam Ward is one of the Heisman favorites, he hasn’t played a lot of high-caliber defense. Wiping out the box score against South Florida, Ball State and Florida A&M doesn’t tell us much. And while their win over Florida was impressive at the time, the Gators have been a dumpster fire ever since.

Virginia Tech also seemed lost early on, losing outright to Vanderbilt as a two-touchdown favorite and Rutgers as a three-point favorite.

However, the Hokies still have top-notch talent. And I think they fit in relatively well with the Hurricanes.

Ward is incredible, but his biggest problem is dealing with chaos and passing under pressure. During his two years at Washington State, he struggled greatly when the pocket collapsed. That could be a problem against Brent Pry’s aggressive, chaos-based defense.

Behind stud linemen Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 pressures, 10 hurries, four sacks) and Aeneas Peebles (nine pressures, eight hurries, one sack), Virginia Tech ranks 16th nationally in Havoc Rate (24%) and nationally ranked fourth in sack rate (12%).

Pry can be aggressive because he has two excellent cornerbacks, Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane, who can play wideouts one-on-one. The Hokies rank in the top 30 nationally in EPA per dropback allowed and passing downs success rate allowed.

Virginia Tech’s rush defense was the bigger problem. The Hokies have allowed at least 150 rushing yards to all four opponents, including a whopping 240 to Old Dominion.

But Miami’s offensive prowess is up in the air. The offensive line is performing well (10th nationally in line yards), and top defensive lineman Damien Martinez was a stud at Oregon State.

Still, the Hurricanes rank in the top eight nationally in EPA in dropback and pass success rate, compared to outside the top 30 in EPA in rush and rush success rate.

I’m still trying to figure out why Virginia Tech is struggling to find a consistent offense (ranking 90th in success rate) despite a highly experienced line and an elite dual-threat quarterback in Kyron Drones.

However, the Hokies have steadily improved their per-rush metrics over the course of the season, setting single-game highs in offensive line yards per rush (3.5), EPA per rush (0.23), rush success rate (50%) and yards gained per Rush (6.7) last week against Rutgers.

That could be the key against Miami, which has played excellently in the secondary (fourth in PFF coverage ratings and eighth in EPA per pass allowed) but slightly worse against the rush (30th in EPA per rush and allowed rush success rate).

Betting on college football?

Choice between Virginia Tech and Miami

Ultimately, the Hokies have some subtle matchup advantages on Friday, and they could steadily improve as the weeks go by.

If they can run the ball on offense while simultaneously pressuring Ward into mistakes on defense, they should keep him around for 60 minutes.

Choose: Virginia Tech +19.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by going 40/1 on Sandy Alcantara and winning the NL Cy Young.