Brief analysis

26 September 2024

As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on September 26, Hurricane Helene was expected to make landfall late Thursday in the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph, which could cause significant disruption to energy infrastructure. Hurricane Helene is the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States this hurricane season. The other three named storms to make landfall so far this hurricane season (Beryl, Debby, and Francine) were either Category 1 or 2 hurricanes.

Hurricane Helene’s predicted path toward the Big Bend coast of Florida takes it away from the richest oil and natural gas producing areas near Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

However, trade press reports indicate that earlier this week several companies, including BP, Chevron, Equinor and Shell, evacuated their personnel on offshore oil platforms and suspended some production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) show that as of 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time on September 25, 29% of oil production (511,000 barrels per day) and 17% of natural gas production (313 million cubic feet per day) had been suspended on offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Personnel were evacuated from 17 production platforms, nearly 5% of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Coast Guard reports that several ports along the Gulf Coast are closed. Inbound and outbound shipping to the Port of Tampa Bay, which handles over 17 million tons of oil and gas products in a typical year, has come to a standstill. The duration of the port closures and the impact of Hurricane Helene on oil and gas trade are still uncertain.

Strong winds, flooding and storm surge from Hurricane Helene could affect energy infrastructure such as power plants and power transmission and distribution lines. Florida utilities are preparing for numerous power outages.

To help analysts assess potential energy-related storm effects, EIA maintains energy disruption maps that display real-time energy infrastructure and storm information.

Main responsible person: Matthew French