Prop Bet #1: Spencer Schwellenbach under 6.5 strikeouts
-118 at FanDuel
Spencer Schwellenbach was a sensation as a rookie for the Atlanta Braves, posting a solid 3.72 ERA, 3.04 xERA, and 3.12 FIP with some strong underlying metrics. It’s impressive for someone to be in the 88th percentile or higher in strikeout rate, chase rate, walk rate, and barrel rate — let alone a 24-year-old.
He’s been on a roll strikeout-wise, topping his strikeout prop in nine of his last ten starts while posting 7+ punchouts in seven straight starts. It would be silly to consider the under on his Ks prop on Sunday Night Baseball, right?
Well, call me whatever you want, but I’ll take the sub-6.5. I don’t deny that he was impressive. His fundamental stats fascinate me because he has pretty much everything I want in a pitcher.
However, there are several factors working against him. The combination of all these factors makes me more pessimistic about his prospects than one would expect for someone who has been shining recently.
After batting so many overs in a row, I consider this a big sell for this prop. He has bowled beyond the sixth innings just once in his last four starts and leading prediction system THE BAT X is predicting he will bowl just 83 overs in today’s game.
The weather is not favorable for the pitchers as it will be a warm evening (27 degrees) with 8-6 mph winds to right field. Additionally, there will be a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate in Edwin Moscoso as Schwellenbach faces a strong Philadelphia Phillies lineup on the road.
Prop Bet #2: Aaron Nola over 18.5 outs
+145 at BetMGM
Aaron Nola wants to make history and could become the player with the most wins of all time on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park.
Some of these factors like the weather and the referee could also work against Nola at this point. However, the list of factors is shorter – in my opinion, it ends here – and there are reasons to expect a strong performance from the veteran.
Most importantly, he pitches at home, where he excels with a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 87 ⅔ IP. His strikeout rate increases from 21.2% to 23.9% at Citizens Bank Park.
Atlanta has been overrated at the plate this season, especially against right-handed pitchers (94 wRC+ and .306 wOBA). Over the last 15 days, not much has changed at 17th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA against righties – not quite as bad, but still not impressive.
He’s a workhorse who has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts. He’s made it past the sixth inning in six of his last nine home starts, making his 18.5 outs with plus-money on the over an attractive target.
It gets even more interesting when you consider that the three teams that prevented him from reaching that mark rank 1st (Yankees), 2nd (Padres), and 3rd (Dodgers) in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
The Braves are not of the same caliber as those opponents, so I’m putting the plus money on Nola continuing to play confidently at home. He can become the all-time record holder at Citizens Bank Park if he gets a win on Sunday, so I expect a motivated and inspired performance.
Prop Bet #3: Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases
+105 at bet365
Schwellenbach was nearly unbeatable against righties, but more vulnerable against lefties, allowing a BA of .253, a WHIP of 1.26, and an xFIP of 3.88. Not terrible numbers, but nothing compared to the insane performance he puts up against righties (.197 BA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.20 xFIP).
One thing that stands out about his splits is that he knocks out far fewer left-handers — his strikeout rate drops to 23.1% against them, compared to 35.6% against righties. He also walks more of them (6.7% compared to 3.1%), giving the impression that the righty can take advantage of his offerings.
Bryce Harper will benefit, as one of the biggest weaknesses in his game is that he swings and misses more often than the average person, a concern that Schwellenbach’s splits alleviate.
Harper has been a soul-crusher at Citizens Bank Park this season, posting a wRC+ of 161 and a wOBA of .404. His strikeout rate drops from 25% away from home to 18.4% at home, further evidence that he may be able to put the ball in play.
If he touches the ball, be careful – it’s a warm day, the wind is blowing into right field, and there’s a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate to help him out. Harper is still an elite player at the plate, ranking in the 86th percentile or higher in hard hit rate, xSLG, and xwOBA. I’m betting he’ll hit 2+ total bases for the seventh time in 11 games on Sunday night.
