It’s been a rough season for the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays, and now these bottom-place teams in the American League East begin their final series of the season on Friday night at the Trop.

There were a lot of positives for the Jays in the second half, and they would love to open this series with a win. My Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions suggest that giving the ball to Jose Berrios is a good start.

The Jays starter is in business and dominated the Rays, which is my highlight for the September 20 MLB picks.

Prediction for Blue Jays vs. Rays

My best bet
Blue Jays -0.5 runline in five innings (+115 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

If you had told Toronto Blue Jays fans before the season that the Tampa Bay Rays would be under .500 and in fourth place in the American League East, they probably would have believed it any day of the week.

But at what cost? Well, unfortunately, the Blue Jays are in last place. So, apparently, a lot. Aside from the basement situation, there were a lot of positives for Toronto after the trade deadline.

The Jays have given their young outfielders more opportunities to hit, and the guys still in the rotation have pitched well. That’s perhaps no more true of anyone than Jose Berrios.

The 30-year-old right-hander had many ups and downs in the first half of the season, but he has been back in form since early August. Berrios is pitching to a 1.51 ERA and has limited opponents to a .188 batting average and .535 OPS in his last seven starts.

And a solid Berrios is not something the Rays want to see. Berrios has a 2.78 ERA and held Rays batters to a .198 batting average in his last four starts against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are countering Berrios with Tyler Alexander. The left-hander is in a bit of a slump, with a 6.59 ERA and an .886 OPS in his last six appearances. Kevin Cash will likely start with Alexander because this young Toronto team has struggled a bit more against left-handers.

But Alexander has allowed so much hard contact lately that I’m not sure it should matter that much. And it’s not just that the Blue Jays have improved — they’ve had one of the best lineups in baseball since the trade deadline.

Toronto ranks ninth in batting average, seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+ since August 1. I bet they do enough to give Berrios an early lead, and he’ll hold that lead for five innings. As always, avoid the moneyline for the whole game, because the Blue Jays bullpen is still leaky like a sieve.

Prop for Blue Jays star player

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

At this point I must sound like a broken record. But let me say it again:

We will continue to bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s RBIs as long as the sportsbooks continue to provide us with valuable tips.

And would you look? They did it again in this opener against the Rays.

The Blue Jays’ star first baseman scored two more runs last night thanks to a pair of solo home runs. He now has a .322 batting average with a .951 OPS, 30 home runs and 99 RBIs for the season. It was also the ninth time in the last 15 games that Vladdy scored at least one run.

A quick look at his numbers compared to Alexander might put you off. Guerrero is just 2-15 in his career against the Rays’ left-hander, but the advanced numbers show that Vladdy has had quite a bit of bad luck in this matchup.

Despite only two hits, one of them a home run, Guerrero has a .330 expected batting average and a .604 expected slugging percentage in those at-bats, so Vladdy hit the ball hard against Alexander, just right for the crowd.

Guerrero is also hitting left-handed this season, batting .313 and has an OPS of .975. Since he’s also priced well, I’m betting on Vladdy to get another RBI tonight.

Odds for Blue Jays vs. Rays

Blue Jays vs Rays Live Odds

Opening odds Blue Jays vs. Rays

• Money line: Toronto -110 | Tampa Bay -110
• Execute line: Toronto +1.5 -220 | Tampa Bay -1.5 +185
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis for Blue Jays vs. Rays

• This AL East duel basically started off like a coin toss, with both sides listed at -110, and there hasn’t been much notable action on the moneyline thus far.
• Given the way Berrios throws, I believe the Blue Jays have some value at this price.
• A total of 7.5 was achieved, but since Friday afternoon some eights have also appeared on the board.
• I’d lean toward the under, at exactly 8.0. Not only has Berrios been excellent lately, but he’s also pitched long in games, limiting the number of innings a shaky Blue Jays bullpen needs. While Alexander has struggled, the Jays have had some problems with left-handed pitching lately.

Blue Jays vs Rays Trend

The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 38 of their last 57 road games, returning +13.05 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays here.

Game info Blue Jays vs Rays

Blue Jays vs Rays: Latest injuries

Weather Blue Jays vs. Rays

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