• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — over 16.5 Wears: GiNo matter how strong the Buffalo offense has been this year, Baltimore will want to control the game on the ground and throughout the season. Fewer options for Josh Allen Having the ball means the Ravens have a higher chance of getting a win.

• Record: 9-8 (52.9%) – 0.98 units won: Our weekly single game bets have a hit rate of over 50% and we are positive on units won.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

A Sunday Night Football classic in the making, with two of them Top-ranked PFF teams Heading into Week 4: Josh Allen‘s bills and Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens.

Buffalo was riding high to start the year and had impressive performances on both ends. Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have reached a high level with this offense, posting the second-highest EPA per play as the league’s highest-scoring offense (37.3 points per game). The defense has a similar history of impressive performances, also posting a top-five EPA rating per plays allowed.

Allen, the current clubhouse leader according to oddsmakers to win the 2024 MVP award, has done incredibly well against the spread as an underdog. Accordingly BetMGMAllen has compiled an 18-9-2 record against the spread when giving away points.

Despite having a talented roster, Baltimore has had some unfortunate games over the last three weeks, losing back-to-back games to open the season before winning in Dallas last week – a win that almost slipped away too late. The Ravens can’t help but play close games.

Jackson and Derrick Henry Combined, it was a huge day on the ground in Week 3 with 239 yards and three scores, each posting a PFF rushing grade above 80.0. The return to the ground game has helped this offense set the pace, and the Ravens will look to get back on offense this week.

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 16.5 carries (-103) – 3.3% PFF Greenline Edge

After early indications from Ravens head coach John Harbaugh that Baltimore might not put much pressure on Henry, the ailing back has seen an increase in his touches in each of the last two games. Henry has surpassed that line in two straight weeks as the offense retreated back to the running game.

The Bills were strong defensively, but if they had an Achilles heel it would be their running problems. Buffalo has posted the seventh-highest EPA per game in running games.

Given the strength of the Buffalo offense this year, Baltimore will want to deflate the ball and control the game on the ground and throughout the game. Fewer options for Josh Allen Having the ball means the Ravens have a higher chance of getting a win.