The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons played the best game of the 2024 season on Thursday night, both in terms of real and fantasy football. The Falcons erased a late deficit, sent the game into overtime, and ultimately won 36-30 in overtime. The two teams combined for 883 total yards and scored a ton of fantasy points.

Kirk Cousins ​​threw for a career-high 509 yards (he averaged 216 yards in his first four games), threw 4 touchdown passes and scored 34.4 points. Baker Mayfield, one of the best fantasy quarterbacks this season, threw three and scored 23.4 points.

The Falcons’ top two wide receivers, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, combined for 21 catches for 259 yards with three touchdowns. London scored 33.4 points and Mooney had 31.5 points. For the Buccaneers, Mike Evans also scored two goals and scored 23.2 points.

Heck, even Kyle Pitts, who scored zero Fantasy points had 15.8 points last week.

Unfortunately, even though fantasy points were handed out like candy on Halloween, Bijan Robinson wasn’t part of the excitement. While he averaged a whopping 5.1 yards per rush, he only managed 12 carries, 77 total yards and 10.7 points. This has continued a troubling trend for the second-year running back…his numbers just aren’t great.

Despite being the third back pick in fantasy drafts (ADP 4.7 overall), he is averaging 13.5 fantasy points after five weeks. He is currently the RB22 behind Zack Moss, JK Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson Jr.

Considering where Robinson was selected and the fact that the top runners average over 20 points per game, it’s safe to say that Robinson is on his way to that not-so-nice place we like to call “Bustville.” ” to name.

So what went wrong with Robinson?

Despite averaging 47.8 snaps per game, he ranks 20th in touchdowns per game (17.0) and ranks 20th in fantasy points per touchdown among runners with at least 50 touchdowns ( 0.80). Top defenders like Saquan Barkley and Alvin Kamara average more than a full point per touch.

There’s more bad news.

According to NextGenStats, Robinson ranks 32nd in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected. He is 65th in Rush Expected Points Added. He ranks 35th in both Yards After Contact Per Rush and Rush Success Rate. We also can’t blame Robinson for his lack of productivity, as he ranks 30th among running backs in stacked box rate.

The elephant in the room is, of course, the presence of Tyler Allgeier. A former 1,000-yard runner, his role in the team’s backfield is one of the reasons Robinson was unable to advance to elite status this season. After five weeks, Robinson is seeing 37.4% of the Falcons’ backfield contacts.

For comparison, let’s look at the current top 5 fantasy running backs and their usage.

Kamara has seen 46.2% of backcourt touches in New Orleans. Barkley is at 40.5% in Philadelphia. Derrick Henry is at 40.3% in Baltimore. Kyren Williams is at 46.7% in Los Angeles and Jordan Mason is at 45.5% with the 49ers. Among these five backfields, the Ravens are the only team with another backfield that has seen more than 6% of touches (Justice Hill – 14.2%).

Meanwhile, Allgeier has seen 17.2% of Atlanta’s backfield contacts. He’s also seen seven of the team’s 17 red zone appearances, meaning Robinson isn’t a guarantee he’ll get those important goal-line tackles.

What may surprise you is that Allgeier’s overall scores in these categories are significant down compared to the first five games of last season. During that time, he had a 27% backfield percentage and 11 red zone looks. Robinson was at 34.9% or eight.

So the Falcons’ new coaching regime has given Robinson a more prominent role than he experienced at this point last season. The problem? He’s still not seeing enough touches on offense and hasn’t been very effective with the touches he’s received so far. The statistics above tell the story.

I know this isn’t the kind of thing fantasy managers who bet a high first-round pick on him want to hear, but if these kinds of stats and trends continue, it’s very unlikely that Robinson will reach his average draft price. Position (ADP) is worth. . So if you’re so inclined and can still get good trade value for him, maybe it’s time to think about jumping off the Bijan bandwagon now.