• QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens — Under 19.5 degrees: The two-time MVP is more than capable of shooting the football in the air, but the Ravens will likely try Derrick Henry often in this competition.
• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — Over 6.5 yards of space gained: Henry easily surpassed that receiving yardage mark in five of his eight Week 1 appearances. Three of those games were also Henry’s biggest receiving performances of the season, including one in 2023.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Game overview
There is no better way to start an NFL season than with a highly anticipated rematch of one of the candidates for the 2023 Game of the Year: the AFC title game between two-time champions Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
In their hard-fought playoff matchup, both defenses performed excellently, especially in the second half when the offense scored a total of three points. Both teams struggled a bit to find their footing on offense, though, and that was the difference. Ultimately, the Chiefs’ modest first-half lead was too big for the Ravens to overcome.
Baltimore’s offense was sluggish, could not assert itself in the passing game and largely gave up the running game early on. The soon-to-be named 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a PFF passing grade of just 50.6, largely due to the offense’s inability to adjust the game plan to get the ball out quicker. Kansas City piled up 17 pressures in the second half, including three brutal sacks.
The Ravens largely ignored the running game – they only allowed six runs to running backs in the game – even though the Chiefs had the second-worst EPA per run before the game, which made many doubt their game plan. This undoubtedly led to the signing of Derrick Henry this offseason.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also reshuffled his squad in the offseason and brought in talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed departing but rookie wideout Xavier Worthy Joining via the draft. At the end of the day, the road to the Super Bowl still goes through Reid and quarterback Patrick MahomesThe question is: Can anyone overtake them?
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Under 19.5 completions (+100) – 9.5% PFF Greenline advantage
The reigning MVP made 46 dropbacks in the Chiefs’ last game against the Ravens, but was only able to complete 20 passes and his offense finished with 10 points. That game plan won’t work this time.
In 2023, Jackson averaged just over 19 completions per game, surpassing that mark in nine games. The two-time MVP is more than capable of throwing the football in the air, but the Ravens offense is undoubtedly more effective when the run game sets up the pass, having posted the fourth-highest EPA per game after a run last season.
Maximizing this performance was precisely their goal when introducing Derrick Henry to that backfield to complement Jackson. That investment in the running game will be on full display as Baltimore tries to rebound from its playoff exit.
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 6.5 yards of space gained (-118) — 6.1% PFF Greenline edge
While Henry isn’t necessarily known for his pass-catching prowess, he’s not without talent in that area. In 2023, he reached his career-high with a PFF pass-catching grade of 70.7. The hard-hitting running back averaged about 1.8 passes per game last season, surpassing that yardage threshold in 10 games.
After a long offseason, teams may forget that Henry is a bulldozer in the open field, no matter how he gets the ball. In five of his eight Week 1 appearances, Henry easily surpassed that mark in receiving yards. Three of those games also ended up being Henry’s biggest receiving performance of the season, including in 2023.
