After an entertaining qualifying session at the Azerbaijan GP with the surprise elimination of Lando Norris in Q1 and the now usual Baku pole position for Charles Leclerc, a race with a lot of uncertainty beckons, accompanied by the high probability of a safety car deployment and/or a red flag.

We have predicted the top 10 finishes for the Azerbaijan GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race too!

Race predictions: Azerbaijan GP 2024

10. Franco Colapinto

Williams is having a great weekend and Franco Colapinto was the surprise qualifier in Baku. The replacement for Logan Sargeant in the Grove team for the rest of the 2024 season has done what the American driver has failed to do in a year and a half: beat Alex Albon in qualifying!

After making a great debut at Monza too, Colapinto is proving he has the pace to be an official Formula 1 driver and not just a temporary replacement. Today he has a great opportunity to score his first point as a Formula 1 driver from P9.

9. Fernando Alonso

The Spanish driver always manages to put his car where it doesn’t belong. The Aston Martin driver beat Haas and Williams in qualifying and was only +0.080 seconds behind Lewis Hamilton. For the AMR24 to stay in the points, it will need to drive another epic race like in Monza.

It will be difficult to keep his rivals at bay for 51 laps when the car often reduces its potential on race days, but if anyone can do it, it’s him. He will start the race in P8 and will surely be the protagonist of many battles on the track with such a tight midfield.

8. Lando Norris

In a race without surprises and without external factors that could influence the course of the race, P8 is the maximum that Lando is aiming for, starting from P16 on the grid. Even if he follows a different strategy than all his rivals, the gap is too big to aim for more, even with the possibility of overtaking on the long straight.

Lando will probably have to start on the hard tyres to extend his first stint as long as possible and hope that a safety car or red flag brings him luck and opportunities to achieve a better result than P8 in Baku.

7. Lewis Hamilton

This was written before Lewis Hamilton’s start in the pit lane was confirmed

Lewis is going completely unnoticed this weekend. After being beaten again by George Russell in qualifying, it doesn’t look like it will be a great weekend for the seven-time world champion. He starts seventh and has rivals in front of him who, at first glance, are faster than him.

Data on the Azerbaijan GP from the qualification in Baku

👉Data shows where Charles Leclerc unstoppably took his fourth pole in a row at the Azerbaijan GP

👉Data from Baku confirms the real culprit behind Lando Norris’ Q1 exit amid yellow flag drama

6. George Russell

The Mercedes driver delivered an excellent performance in qualifying and finished the race in fifth place. Third place was only a few hundredths of a second out of his reach.

Behind him is Max Verstappen and in front of him are drivers whose cars were somewhat more competitive this weekend.

5. Sergio Perez

The “King” of Baku beat his teammate in qualifying for the first time this season. He is also the only driver to have achieved more than one victory on this track.

However, we believe Red Bull is keen for Max to take the maximum points from Lando Norris in this race. McLaren has been stronger for some time and the threat in the World Championship is real. Any help for Max is good and welcome for the Dutch driver.

4. Max Verstappen

After several difficult races, Azerbaijan does not look like it will be a walk in the park for him either. But in the hunt for his fourth world title, a fourth place could be a big blow for his rival, as Lando Norris started from P16.

He will start the race from P6 after being overtaken by Sergio Perez in qualifying and passed by George Russell. But in the race, Max should have an advantage over George and his teammate. And if not, Red Bull should help him a little.

3. Carlos Sainz

Good weekend for the Spanish driver. Although he is behind Charles Leclerc, he is living up to expectations. His race pace is good and the Ferrari’s pace is good. He will start third and a podium would be a great result for him in Baku.

2. Charles Leclerc

Charles is the man to beat in the race in Azerbaijan. Ferrari has shown great pace all weekend, but Leclerc’s curse in Baku is a reality.

This is his fourth pole position on the Azerbaijani street circuit and he has failed to win in the last three. It is true that the SF24 seems to be a better car this time than in other years and with such a tight field it is the big favourite. But… there is someone who has to make a mark in this race.

1. Oscar Piastri

What to say about Oscar Piastri? He will start in second place and will undoubtedly give his all to win in Azerbaijan. After much discussion about the “papaya rules” that McLaren finally changed for this race, the Australian driver has an incredible chance to mark his territory and prove that he can even beat Lando Norris in the overall standings this season.

McLaren must be smart and avoid making the same strategic mistakes as Italy if they really want to win in Baku. Now is the time for revenge against Ferrari on the pit wall.

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