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Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction: bets, context and lineups

Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia

• Atletico Madrid wins and No on Both Teams to Score @ 1.27 with 1xBetwhich corresponds to a 51.3 percent chance for Atletico to win and not concede a goal.
• Under 2.5 goals @ 1,991 with 1xBetwhich corresponds to a probability of 54.1% that fewer than three goals will be scored in the game.
• Halftime with most goals (1st half) @ 3.00 with 1xBetThis corresponds to a probability of 33.3% that more goals will be scored in the first half than in the second half.

Atletico Madrid will look to maintain their strong home record against Valencia with a routine 2-0 win on Sunday night.

Our analysis: Assessment of the form of both teams

Third place will face 20th place on Sunday evening when Atletico Madrid host Valencia at the Estadio Civitas Metropolitano.

Atletico have made a solid start to the 2024/25 La Liga season, averaging two points per game in their first four matches.

As we would expect from Diego Simeone’s side, Atletico’s success has been built on its watertight defence rather than a free-flowing attack. In four games this season they have conceded just two goals. The signing of Chelsea pressing machine Conor Gallagher will only improve Atletico’s ability to defend from the front.

In contrast, things couldn’t have gone much worse for Valencia this season. Three defeats and a single draw have left Los Ches at the bottom of the La Liga table.

In the fourth match week they were able to stop this decline and reach a 1-1 draw against local rivals Villarreal in a hard-fought derby.

Expected lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia

The expected lineup for Atletico Madrid in 3-4-2-1:

Musso; Mandava, Le Normand, Gimenez, Llorente, Lino, Koke, Barrios, Callagher, Griezmann, Alvarez

The expected lineup for Valencia in 4-4-2:

Mamardashvili; Correia, Vazquez, Tarrega, Mosquera, Lopez, Rioja, Guillamon, Pepelu, Almeida, Duro

Atletico continues home win against Valencia

Valencia’s last away win at Atletico Madrid dates back to 2011. In fact, the Ches have only won three times at Atletico since the turn of the millennium.

Diego Simeone’s men are extremely efficient in front of their own fans and will try not to encourage the visitors.

The hosts have not conceded a goal in their last two home games against Valencia and, given the declining morale of Los Ches, there is no reason why they cannot score a hat-trick.

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 1: Atletico Madrid wins and No on Both Teams to Score @ 1.27 with 1xBet

No expectations of a goal festival

We have already talked about Atletico’s controlled and disciplined style of play, scoring just six goals in four games. Valencia, on the other hand, has scored just three goals in its first four games.

With Valencia’s profligate attack likely to have fewer chances against Atletico Madrid’s defence than teams like Celta Vigo or Athletic Bilbao, it could be a long night for the visiting fans.

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.91 with Vbet and @ 1.991 with 1xBet

Game could be decided by halftime

Only five of the 18 goals scored in matches involving Atletico Madrid and Valencia this season have come in the second half.

This suggests that Simeone is encouraging his Atletico players to go all out early in games in order to gain the upper hand and control the game from a position of strength. Valencia have also proved vulnerable in the first 45 minutes, conceding two goals in the first half against Celta Vigo and one each against Bilbao and Barcelona.

At odds of 3.00, we believe there is a probability of over 33% that more goals will be scored in the first half than in the second 45 minutes.

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 3: Halftime with most goals (1st half) @ 3.00 with 1xBet