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Asian stocks fall as US rally takes a breather: Markets Wrap
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Asian stocks fall as US rally takes a breather: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stocks in Asia fell after a rally on Wall Street stalled within striking distance of its all-time highs.

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Shares fell in Japan, Australia and South Korea after the U.S. index edged lower following an eight-day winning streak. Chinese stocks may fall after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 4.1 percent on Tuesday. Walmart Inc. is seeking to raise as much as $3.74 billion by selling its stake in Chinese e-commerce company JD.com Inc.

“There was no real news to drive cross-asset flows, so the blame is likely to be placed on positioning and liquidity dynamics,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The bottom line is that risk bulls will feel that today’s moves were only superficial, but the wounds will not be too deep as many have executed this move well and will be sitting on some good gains in the equity indices.”

In addition to capital flows and positioning, the recent rally was also fueled by bets that the Federal Reserve could signal it was moving closer to cutting interest rates, prompting bond traders to take record risk in anticipation of a rally in the Treasury market.

The dollar steadied after three sessions of sustained weakness as markets await U.S. jobs data due on Wednesday and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for further clues on the size and timing of rate cuts. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent, hitting its lowest since mid-March.

In Asia, policymakers in Indonesia and Thailand are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as they weigh uncertainties about policy changes and await the Fed’s upcoming easing of monetary policy. Australian 10-year bond yields fell five basis points in early trade.

Japan’s stocks fell as a stronger yen hurt exporters. The yen stabilized at around 145 against the dollar after rising on Tuesday as traders await the Bank of Japan governor’s speech to parliament on Friday.

Chinese real estate stocks are in focus as the country considers a new financing option for local governments – selling bonds to buy up unsold homes after a series of bailouts failed to support the market.

The S&P 500 fell below 5,600 on Tuesday as Nvidia Corp. — which had gained nearly 25 percent in six days — led the losses among megacaps. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were little changed after falling six basis points. Brent oil fell for a third straight day on a possible ceasefire in Gaza and growing concerns about global demand, while gold hit a new record.

Dan Wantrobski of Janney Montgomery Scott says he continues to expect continued strength in equity markets in the near term, but remains “on high alert” for another, possibly larger, correction wave in the August-October period.

“So what happens when everything and everyone is bull market-ready,” Wantrobski said. “From a timing perspective, we are heading into a window of opportunity where the probability of a liquidity event is high – and the charts, trader positioning and sentiment are all very vulnerable right now in our view. We smell a bull trap. But hope we’re wrong.”

Momentum traders and a rise in corporate buybacks are likely to drive a rally in U.S. stocks over the next four weeks, Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note Monday.

Rubner, who correctly predicted a late-summer correction and advised in late June to reduce exposure to U.S. equities after July 4, is now tactically optimistic, saying current positioning and inflows “will provide a tailwind as sellers have run out of ammunition.”

Important events this week:

  • Minutes of the Federal Reserve Bank, preliminary annual BLS payroll revision, Wednesday

  • HCOB PMI and consumer confidence in the Eurozone, Thursday

  • ECB publishes report on July interest rate decision on Thursday

  • US Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday

  • Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI), Friday

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will attend a special session of the Japanese parliament on Friday to discuss the July 31 interest rate hike

  • US new home sales, Friday

  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday

Some of the key market movements:

Shares

  • S&P 500 futures were little changed at 9:01 a.m. Tokyo time

  • Hang Seng futures fell 1%

  • Japan’s Topix fell 1%

  • The Australian S&P/ASX 200 remained barely unchanged

  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.4%

  • Nasdaq 100 futures remained little changed

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained little changed

  • The euro was little changed at 1.1128 dollars.

  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 145.30 per dollar.

  • The offshore yuan remained virtually unchanged at 7.1141 per dollar.

  • The Australian dollar remained almost unchanged at USD 0.6748

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $59,065.07

  • Ether fell 0.6% to $2,574.19

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year government bonds remained almost unchanged at 3.80%

  • The yield on Japanese 10-year bonds fell two basis points to 0.870%

  • The yield on Australian 10-year bonds fell by six basis points to 3.89 percent

Raw materials

This story was created with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

– With support from Rita Nazareth.

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