The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sept. 10 is fast approaching, with most activity expected between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center. The tropical Atlantic was calm Tuesday morning, but that will change over the remainder of the hurricane season, which is expected to be very active.
In the Atlantic basin, there are 14 named storms in a typical season, of which seven develop into hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
How many named storms have there been this year?
Where did the storms go?
“Hurricane season started early and hard with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “NOAA’s update to the Hurricane Season Outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is imminent, when historically the strongest impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms occur.”
Hurricane forecast
According to NOAA’s latest hurricane season forecast, there could be 17 to 24 named storms this year, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes, by the season’s official end on November 30. These numbers include storms that have already come and gone this summer.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate a 90% probability of an above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The probability of a near-normal season is only 10% and the probability of a below-average season is negligible.
The beginning of an intense hurricane season
Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between August 20 and October 10.
August 20 to September 2 usually marks the peak of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. The main risk area for major hurricanes in late August is the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Why is September the month with the highest hurricane activity?
Two conditions make September a prime month for tropical mountainous development: surface water temperatures and wind shear. Surface water temperatures of 80 degrees and above are the perfect breeding ground for hurricane development. Water temperatures peak in September and October. Upper-altitude winds can hinder a storm’s development or weaken an existing storm by blowing over its top and can tear hurricanes apart. These wind shears are low from mid-August to mid-September.
Factors that could influence this year’s forecast
The dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storms from forming during the summer is expected to subside in August. The Atlantic Ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active for several reasons:
- Above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
- Reduced vertical wind shear.
- Weaker tropical trade winds in the Atlantic.
- An intensified West African monsoon.
Contributors: Doyle Rice
Source: Reporting and research by USA TODAY Network; NOAA; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
