By RUSTIN DODD, CODY STAVENHAGEN and DAN HAYES
Six days left. Five teams. Three AL wild card spots are at stake.
The Orioles seem safe. The Royals are collapsing. The Tigers are on the rise. The Twins are faltering. The Mariners are… still alive?
As we prepare for the final week, let’s analyze the state of the race.
This is what the table looks like today
| B | M | Great Britain | |
| oriole | 86 | 70 | +4 |
| Royal | 82 | 74 | — |
| tiger | 82 | 74 | — |
| Twins | 81 | 75 | 1 |
| Sailors | 81 | 76 | 1.5 |
Next schedule
Oriole: at the Yankees (3); at the Twins (3)
Royal: at the Nationals (3); at the Braves (3)
Tiger: White Sox (3)
Twins: Marlins (3); Orioles (3)
Seafarers: at Astros (2); A’s (3)
Tiebreaker scenarios
- Direct comparison*
- Intria division record against teams in their division
- Interdivision record against teams within their league but outside their division
- Last half of intraleague games: Record against teams within their league after the mid-season
- Last half of intraleague games plus one: Record in the last game of the first half of intraleague games
*Three-way tie: Overall record against the other teams. If two teams have the same overall record, a head-to-head match will be played between those two teams again.
How they got here
Oriole: Baltimore, one of baseball’s best teams until June, has a record of just 33-39 since early July and 8-11 in September – a stretch that allowed the Yankees to take control of the AL East. They were able to bring back Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías from the injured list on Sunday, the same day they lost a series to the Tigers. Their last series win was against the Chicago White Sox on September 2 and 4.
Royal: On Sept. 14, the Royals improved their record to 82-67 and had a 98.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. Since then, they have lost seven straight games, and as of Monday, their chance of making the playoffs had dropped to 68.6 percent. Overall, the Royals are 7-14 since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino left with a broken thumb on Aug. 29.
Tiger: The Tigers were nine games under .500 on July 4, and by August 10, their playoff chances were down to just 0.2 percent. But the Tigers have the best record in the American League since that July 4 date (43-27) and have finished extremely well since August 13, with a 26-11 record. After a 5-1 road sweep of the Royals and Orioles, the Tigers now have a one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card race.
Twins: Since improving to a season-high 17 games over .500 on Aug. 17, they have fallen apart with a record of 11-22. An offense that ranked fifth in baseball in yardage before Carlos Correa went on the injured list is scoring just 3.7 runs per game, and a pitching staff that is at the end of its rope has a 4.78 ERA in 33 games. Although Correa and Byron Buxton recently returned from lengthy injury layoffs, they capped a 2-5 road trip to Cleveland Boston with a terrible performance in Sunday’s doubleheader at Fenway Park.
Seafarers: One of the holders of a 10-game lead in the AL West, the Mariners had a 64-64 record when they fired manager Scott Servais on Aug. 22. Under manager Dan Wilson, they won 16 of their next 28 games, enough to stay on the fringe of wild-card contention.
The conclusion
Oriole: Baltimore may have the toughest schedule of any wild-card team, but they are 3-0 against the Twins and, barring a complete collapse, will make the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Royal: Kansas City has scored just four runs in its last five games, including one in a three-game sweep of the Giants. They’re lucky — in a way — to face the Washington Nationals, who are without shortstop CJ Abrams. But they’ll end up with the Braves, who may be fighting for their own postseason survival.
Tiger: The Tigers go into their final home game without making up any ground, but now have their fate in their own hands. They play three games against the Rays and could secure a place in the playoffs thanks to a final series against the historically bad Chicago White Sox.
Twins: Much like the Royals, they can face a Miami team at home that has won just three of its last 13 games before facing a strong Orioles team that swept them in Baltimore but could use the final series to set up their playoff rotation. They just need to catch one of Kansas City or Detroit and hold the tiebreaker against both in the event of a three-way and four-way tie.
Seafarers: Seattle essentially has to keep the upper hand – and hope for some help.
(Top photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
