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Alibaba’s long-awaited connection to the Chinese stock market could bring a timely boost
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Alibaba’s long-awaited connection to the Chinese stock market could bring a timely boost

(Bloomberg) — Chinese investors finally being able to buy shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. could give the e-commerce company’s stock price a much-needed boost and bring in as much as $20 billion in inflows next year.

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The company first floated the idea of ​​listing its shares in Hong Kong two years ago, as tensions with the US were mounting. The plan could finally be implemented by the end of the month, allowing the company to join a program linking the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges with the Hong Kong stock exchange.

This new source of funding through the so-called “Southbound Link” could support its share price, which has underperformed that of its main rival Tencent Holdings Ltd. due to concerns about the impact of competition and sluggish consumption in China.

“We believe Alibaba’s inclusion in the Stock Connect market would have a positive impact on the stock and could help stabilize sentiment as the company is a well-known name among mainland investors,” said Marvin Chen, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Shares held on the mainland could reach double-digit percentages, similar to other tech giants, Chen added.

Alibaba’s shares are up just 2% in Hong Kong so far this year, while major rivals Tencent and Meituan are up 25% each. China’s weak retail sales have hurt Alibaba’s core business, and price wars in cloud services are slowing growth in a potential new driver.

On Thursday, Alibaba reported a meager 4 percent increase in first-quarter revenue after the group’s Chinese e-commerce business shrank for the first time in at least a year. Profits plunged 27 percent, dashing hopes of an imminent turnaround.

In addition to China’s faltering economy, Alibaba shares have struggled in recent years with Beijing’s regulatory crackdown and geopolitical tensions with Washington. The company originally planned a dual initial public offering in 2022 amid fears of a potential delisting of its American Depositary Receipts, a threat that later faded.

The next step in the plan is a vote by shareholders at the annual general meeting on August 22. If the transition to the primary listing in Hong Kong is completed by the end of the month, the shares could be included in Stock Connect on September 9 at the earliest, Morgan Stanley said.

“We expect some inflows, but not large ones,” analyst Laura Wang wrote in a June note. In the first six months after listing, it will be around $12 billion, or about 7 percent of Alibaba’s total outstanding shares. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chen expects inflows of up to around $19.5 billion, but “these will take some time to accumulate and the initial impact will not be that large.”

Share prices of other Stock Connect members were mixed, with XPeng Inc. and Kuaishou Technology declining in the month after joining. Xipu Han, a quantitative strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., expects Alibaba to perform more like Meituan, whose stock outperformed the benchmark in the month after joining and whose trading volume rose 20% in six months.

Of course, the stock’s performance depends more on the company’s fundamentals and the environment in which it operates, but the entry of Chinese investors can increase momentum, especially given the recent outflow of foreign funds.

“Over the past two years, even Chinese investors have been disappointed by the big Chinese internet stocks, so it’s hard to say whether Alibaba could follow the trading pattern of its predecessors,” said Kenny Wen, head of investment strategy at KGI Asia Ltd. If the stock rises on positive news, “then buying will be increased as there will be an additional source.”

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