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US Open quarterfinal preview: Swiatek sets up showdown against Pegula
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US Open quarterfinal preview: Swiatek sets up showdown against Pegula

NEW YORK – The quarterfinals of the US Open have been decided, and anyone who has been paying attention over the past few weeks will not be surprised by the names among the last eight.

US Open: Results | Pull | Playing order

World number one Iga Swiatek stormed into her second US Open and her first since her 2022 title run by beating 16th seed Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 6-1 in the round of 16 on Monday night. Swiatek is one of three players in the top half of the field to advance without dropping a set, and she will face red-hot No. 6 Jessica Pegula on Wednesday.

In the other top-half quarterfinal, last year’s semifinalist Karolina Muchova will face Cleveland finalist Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Brazilian reached her first US Open quarterfinal after defeating former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki on Monday.

In the lower half of the draw, there will be a rematch of the Australian Open final between world number two Aryna Sabalenka and number 7 Zheng Qinwen, who won gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics last month. It will be the second major revenge match in a row for Zheng, who beat Donna Vekic in a rematch of the Olympic final.

Rounding out the high-profile showdowns are two New York-born baseliners who battled their way into their first US Open quarterfinals. Washington DC champion Paula Badosa will look to capitalize on her summer surge and reach her first major semifinal when she takes on 13th seed Emma Navarro.

This is how the games develop:

Upper half

(1) Iga Swiatek vs. (6) Jessica Pegula

This is the 10th meeting of these two heavyweights in their careers and although Swiatek leads 6-3, the Pole has the utmost respect for how difficult Pegula is making her life. This is a rematch of last fall’s WTA Finals Championship match, which was the last time the two faced each other.

Swiatek dropped just one game in Cancun, avenging a big win by Pegula in the Montreal semifinals earlier that year, where Pegula won 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-4 to take the title. This summer, Pegula has once again shown how dangerous she can be on hard courts, especially North American ones. She has already won 13 of her 14 hard court matches this summer, including the title in Toronto and the final in Cincinnati.

(22) Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Karolina Muchova

Few players on tour can elicit as many ahs and oohs from the press as Muchova when she’s at full speed, and that’s exactly how the Czech played in New York. The former world No. 8 is yet to drop a set, highlighted by her 6-3, 7-6(5) victory over former No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the second round and a 6-3, 6-3 win over No. 5 Jasmine Paolini in the previous round.

Now she needs just one more win to secure her return to the semifinals, where she lost to Coco Gauff last year, and Muchova is enjoying her game as much as the fans are.

“I just like to change things up,” Muchova said. “I like doing what I do, basically going to the net and actually playing a game, having more fun, not just hitting back and playing forehand/backhand.”

“That’s how I see the game. That’s how I like to play it. These are the things I want to improve in training and then implement on the pitch.”

Muchova is 3-0 up against Haddad Maia, who is moving into her first major quarterfinal since reaching the semifinals of Roland Garros 2023.

Lower half

(2) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (7) Zheng Qinwen

Can Zheng use her momentum and claim her first win in three attempts against Sabalenka? It was a tough match for the 21-year-old Chinese who has single-handedly put tennis back on the national agenda in her homeland, at a level not seen since Li Na.

Zheng has allayed any fears of disappointment after her emotional run to the gold medal in Paris last month, having to fight her way back to the quarterfinals where Sabalenka stopped her 12 months ago. Three of Zheng’s four matches went to three sets and she twice had to come from a set down.

Zheng’s serve has been the foundation of her run in New York. In four matches, she hit 49 aces, almost twice as many as the next best player on the list, Donna Vekic, who she beat in the fourth round. When the first serve lands, she is nearly unbeatable. She has won 80% of the points when it lands.

Where it can all go wrong for Zheng is exactly what Sabalenka has dictated in their past encounters: the second serve. Zheng has won just 45 percent of the times she has had to play through her second serve. Few players on tour have as devastating a second serve return as No. 2 Sabalenka, who has won 60 percent of her second serve return points.

Following her dominant title run in Cincinnati two weeks ago, where she defeated Swiatek and Pegula to win her first title since the Australian Open, Sabalenka looked cool, calm and focused en route to her fourth consecutive US Open quarterfinal. No one has strung together so many titles since Serena Williams, and her relaxed and confident demeanor bodes well for her as she tries to become the first woman since Angelique Kerber in 2016 to win both hardcourt majors in a single season.

(13) Emma Navarro vs. (26) Paula Badosa

Badosa was born in Manhattan, but the 26-year-old Spaniard knows she’s on foreign soil when she takes on Charleston’s Navarro. Neither woman had had much success at the US Open before this year – they went 2-6 together at the event – but there were signs that something special was in store for both players.

Badosa’s season has taken off on the clay court after she was able to return to training and playing with minimal pain following successful treatment for her chronic back injury. Just over two years ago, Badosa was ranked world No. 2, but last month she confirmed her comeback with a title run in Washington DC. She has now parlayed that success into her first US Open quarterfinal and her first major quarterfinal since Roland Garros 2021.

“It will be my first time at Ashe, I’ve never played there before,” Badosa said. “It will also be my first time in the quarterfinals (of the US Open), so it’s an experience for me.”

“I like challenges like this. I was born to play on big stages and I’m really looking forward to it.”

Badosa wins second round match in Rome after coming from behind against Navarro

As for Navarro, the 23-year-old is in the quarterfinals of a major tournament for the second year in a row and is on the verge of a top-10 debut after her three-set victory over defending champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round. It has been a remarkably steady rise for the former University of Virginia standout, who began the 2022 season outside the top 100.

Navarro admitted she felt some imposter syndrome after her top-20 debut this spring, and now says she finally feels like she belongs on the sport’s biggest stage.

“I’m just playing with more confidence and more belief,” Navarro said. “I think in the past I’ve seen decisions on the court like receiving the ball on the upwind or going forward to hit a forehand instead of going back, things like that. Those were decisions in the past. Now I see those situations less as a decision and more as I have to approach it this way. Partly because if I don’t make that more confident, aggressive decision, the players I’m playing against will fight it off. And also because I think I have more confidence in myself to actually be able to execute those shots.

“Then just the mental side. I believe I can play tennis with the best players in the world. I deserve to be on that stage and yes, I belong in those rounds of the Grand Slams and yes, I can go far.”

The winner reaches her first Grand Slam semifinal.

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