The final rival game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals begins on Monday afternoon.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Cardinals, but they’ve recently found some encouraging players to build around next year. A 14-7 victory over the Yankees was capped by Jordan Walker’s five-hit night that ended their recent streak. Walker is a rising star for the club at just 22 years old, despite already having at-batted over 500 times in the major leagues.
Among the many concerns was the lack of productive pitching in St. Louis. Extensive trades and free agent signings have nonetheless resulted in a 4.18 ERA, which ranks 20th in the major leagues. Andre Pallante may be the most interesting piece to face Milwaukee. After spending much of his MLB career as a reliever, he was reinstated in the rotation with mixed results. The other two starters, Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde, are talented pitchers but have fallen short of expectations in the Cardinals’ playoff fight.
It’s been a one-sided story of rival dominance in 2024. The Brewers enter the series with a 7-3 record against St. Louis and look quite capable of making that number even more one-sided. While there are now some new names in the lineup, it hasn’t quickly changed the Cardinals’ season. They rank 20th in wRC+ for the entire season and 20th over the last 30 days. Will they prove to be a renewed threat as the Brewers vie for the best record in the National League?
Probable pitchers
Monday, September 2nd at 1:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (3.70 ERA, 4.10 FIP) vs. Andre Pallante (3.80 ERA, 3.75 FIP)
Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has a chance to start the month with a win in his fourth game against St. Louis this season. His most recent outing in the rivalry was a five-inning shutout, but that came with just two strikeouts. After his dominant outing against the Giants, will he be able to show the same level of swing and miss against the Cardinals? His fastball usage was at its highest in his last of the three previous games against the Cardinals, so maybe he just doesn’t rely on his breaking balls to get outs against this team.
Andre Pallante has been an unexpected hit for the Cardinals’ rotation after spending the first half of the year in the bullpen. His 3.50 ERA since joining the team in late May is one of the better numbers on the team. His 6.78 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9 aren’t particularly impressive, but he’s done a great job of limiting runs in recent weeks. His last four starts, all against playoff contenders, have resulted in a 2.13 ERA over 25 1⁄3 innings.
Tuesday, September 3, 6:40 p.m.: Aaron Civale (4.59 ERA, 4.73 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.96 ERA, 3.37 FIP)
Civale looked great in his last start against the Giants, allowing just two hits and striking out seven times in seven innings. Was this a sign of Civale’s progress or was he simply taking advantage of a strikeout-prone Giants lineup? This will be his first meeting with the Cardinals in 2024. Civale has been solid for Milwaukee since joining the Brewers, posting a 3.72 ERA.
Gray’s first season with the Cardinals was a slight disappointment compared to his stellar 2023 campaign. While he’s still capable of taking over a game, the Brewers could nab him at just the right time. In his last four starts, Gray has allowed seven home runs in 22 innings while posting a 5.73 ERA. Those appearances all lasted less than seven innings after hitting that mark in four of his previous five starts. That may sound like a possibility, but it’s important to be cautious of his strikeout potential nonetheless. He’s struck out at least six batters in 11 of his last 12 starts.
Wednesday, September 3, 6:40 p.m.: Colin Rea (3.70 ERA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA, 4.05 FIP)
Rea will be a key pitcher to watch this start. After a brilliant season, the last two starts have dulled some of that shine. It’s only a small sample size for sure, so it’s more of a drag than anything else. But those two starts resulted in eight earned runs over 10 2⁄3 innings against non-playoff teams. As with any pitcher, Rea’s pitch mix is a factor as he goes from start to start, and his last outing saw him use his slider the most all season.
Fedde was one of the key trades at the deadline for St. Louis after a successful run with the White Sox in an attempt to revive his major league career. His stint with the Cardinals was less effective, with his ERA rising from 3.11 to 4.64. His last two starts were mixed, with a great start against the Twins and a four-run start against the Yankees. Although run prevention hasn’t been reliable with the Cardinals, those two recent starts showed some of Fedde’s strikeout potential. Seven and eight strikeouts, respectively, marked his two highest totals since joining his new team.
forecast
The Cardinals don’t seem to be able to keep up with the Brewers offense right now, but it should be an exciting series. Many of the Cardinals’ core players are starting to get into shape, although it’s too late for a playoff appearance. I have more confidence in the Brewers’ bullpen, and the power potential combined with the depth in the lineup should be enough to win the series.
