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Tigers vs Trojans prediction and tips for September 1, 2024

Madoc Meredith September 2, 2024

It is an outstanding individual competition on the college football field with two top-ranked teams opening the season when the Big Ten becomes entangled with the SEC in the city that never sleeps. The #23 USC Trojans are the “guest” team and compete against the #13 LSU Tigers in the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sunday night. USC finished its final season in the Pac-12 with a record of 8-5 (5-4 in conference) and won the Holiday Bowl 42-28 over Louisville to close out its season. LSU finished 10-3 last season and went 6-2 in the SEC: Their season ended with a 35-31 victory over Louisville in the ReliaQuest Bowl. These teams have met twice before and both teams won on the road. LSU picked up a 23-3 road victory the last time they met on September 29, 1984.

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USC begins a new chapter

USC finished 8-5 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12 last season, a drop of three wins from the season before, their final year in the Pac-12. The Trojans now begin a new chapter as they move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten in 2024. Southern Cal will have to rebuild under coach Lincoln Riley as former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams was drafted No. 1 by the Bears. That’s just one position the Trojans will have to fill this season. The Trojans only have five starters back on offense, though three of those are on the offensive line and four are on defense. This could be a challenging year for the Trojans as they must adjust to new conference rivals.

The Trojans were 5^th in the nation in passing offense with 333 yards per game while ranking 91st^st in rushing with an average of 133.9 yards per game last season. USC was 3^rd in the FBS in offense with 41.8 points per game while ranked 118th^th in the country of 133 FBS teams in defense, allowing 34.4 points per game.

Miller Moss completed 46 of 65 passes for 681 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception last season, along with 32 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Moss filled in for Williams in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville, throwing for 372 yards, six touchdowns and a pick in a 42-28 win. He won the starting QB job, beating out UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava for the spot. Woody Marks (121 carries, 573 yards, four touchdowns, 23 catches, 167 yards, two touchdowns at Mississippi State) takes over as starting running back. Quinten Joyner (18 carries, 125 yards, touchdown) and A’Marion Peterson (two carries, 14 yards) are next in line. In the passing game, Zachariah Branch (31 passes caught, 320 yards, two touchdowns) and tight end Lake McRee (26 passes caught, 262 yards, touchdown) are back. Kyron Hudson (17 passes caught, 189 yards, two touchdowns), Ja’Kobi Lane (seven passes caught, 93 yards, two touchdowns) and Duce Robinson (16 passes caught, 351 yards, two touchdowns) are all back to make plays. Denis Lynch (65 of 66 extra point attempts, 10 of 14 field goals with a longest of 53) is back to handle kicking duties.

If anyone can turn this offense around and replace the great quarterback Caleb Williams, it’s Riley.

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Tigers hope to start the post-Daniels era with a win

LSU was able to post double-digit wins for the second year in a row under coach Brian Kelly thanks to its victory in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Tigers are 10-3 this season and 6-2 in the SEC, but they need to replace some players. Jayden Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy last season, moved on to the NFL and was selected No. 2 by Washington, just behind Williams. The Tigers also saw their top two receivers from last year, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, also selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. LSU needs to find some players at the skill positions, although they return four starters for an experienced offensive line that should keep things running smoothly.

Last year the Tigers were 3^rd in the nation in passing offense with an average of 338.9 yards per game through the air, while they were 10^th in rushing offense with 204.5 yards per game. LSU was 1^st in the FBS on offense with an average of 45.5 points per game last season, while the Tigers were tied with 78 points^th in the country in defense, allowing 28 points per game.

Garrett Nussmeier, who completed 48 of 78 passes for 591 yards with four touchdowns and an interception last season while adding one yard and a touchdown on the ground, takes over as starting quarterback. He showed potential in the Reliaquest Bowl against Wisconsin on New Year’s Day, throwing for 395 yards with three touchdowns and a pick after Daniels opted out to prepare for the draft.

Rickie Collins (two of three, two yards) is the backup. Josh Williams (55 carries, 284 yards, five TDs) is the team’s top returning runner. He will join Kaleb Jackson (31 carries, 165 yards, four TDs) and John Emery Jr. (23 carries, 121 yards, TD) on the ground. Tight end Mason Taylor (36 passes caught, 348 yards, TD) is the team’s top returning pass receiver. Kyren Lacy (30 catches, 558 yards, seven TDs) is back as the starting receiver, while CJ Daniels (55 catches, 1,067 yards, 10 TDs at Liberty) and Chris Hilton Jr. (13 catches, 225 yards, two TDs) are expected to fill the other starting spots. Damian Ramos converted all 77 extra point attempts and 12 of 15 field goal attempts last season, with a career-high 48. He’s back to take over kicking duties this year.

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Best Bets for LSU vs. Southern California (USC)

Side bet on the whole game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

This is a new chapter for both teams, as the last two Heisman Trophy winners left those programs in the offseason due to being selected 1st or 2nd in the NFL Draft. Both teams have quarterbacks that played to their strengths in bowl games last season and produced victories. LSU has a veteran offensive line that should keep Nussmeier in check while opening up holes in the running game. We saw how much USC struggled defensively last season, as the Trojans finished 101st in passing (246.4 yards per game), 116th in running (186.5 yards per game), and 116th in total defense (432.8 yards per game), in addition to being 118th in scoring defense. LSU should be able to move the ball against the Trojans, and their defense led by Harold Perkins should do enough against the Trojans to get the win here.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -4

Total selection for the whole game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

USC achieved an over mark of 10-3 during the 2023 season. The Trojans did not have a game in which they scored fewer than 58 points total. Their only neutral site game was the bowl game against Louisville, in which they scored 70 points total against a 58-point line. LSU finished the 2023 season with an over mark of 12-1 this year. Their only under this season came against Georgia State in a game in which the teams still scored 70 points total, falling under the 74.5 point total. The Tigers exceeded the number in both of last season’s neutral site games that bookended their season, a loss to Florida State in the opener and the win over Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Although the quarterbacks are different than last season, both offenses scored points to put this game over the point total.

Prediction: Over 64

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Chris King, “Chris King”

Chris King has been involved in the world of professional and college sports for more than three decades. Whether it’s playing impromptu games, getting involved in organized sports, or being a fan, he’s tried it all. From the NFL to Arena Football, from the NHL to the KHL, from the NBA to the WNBA to college basketball, and even from the MLB to the KBO. If there’s something, he’s covered it and bet on it too, as Chris has been a seasoned bettor throughout his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners in 2015, his work appeared online and in print. He’s written books for Ruckus Books on college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you’re looking for inside information on finding a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.

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