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The fact that Nvidia exceeds expectations is not enough
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The fact that Nvidia exceeds expectations is not enough

The Nvidia logo at Computex in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 5, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our newsletter for international markets. CNBC Daily Open informs investors what they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe Here.

What you need to know today

Nvidia: Great is not good enough
Nvidia’s numbers continue to be impressive. The chipmaker beat expectations for earnings per share and revenue. Alongside the earnings figures, Nvidia also announced a $50 billion share buyback. Still, shares fell 6.89% in extended trading – the company is so coveted that better-than-expected earnings aren’t good enough for investors.

Fluctuating share prices
The major US indices fell on Wednesday. The reason for this was investor nervousness about the publication of Nvidia’s quarterly results. Super-microcomputer The S&P 900 stock price was also a major drag, with the stock plunging 19% after the company said it would not file its annual report on time and Hindenburg Research disclosed a short position on the company.

Asian chip stocks fall
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday amid a broader decline in Asian technology and chip stocks. The decline was triggered by investor disappointment over Nvidia’s earnings, which in turn hit companies involved in Nvidia’s supply chain. SK Hynix fell about 5.3 percent, while Samsung Electronics fell 3.1 percent.

The new chip war
Chinese electric vehicles dominate the market, accounting for up to 60% of the global market, according to the International Energy Agency. Now, Chinese electric car makers are turning to home-grown car chips that power features such as driver assistance and infotainment to further differentiate themselves and consolidate their market share.

(PRO) Discount giant, reduced goods
Shares of Chinese e-commerce giant PDD plunged nearly 29% on Monday and continued their downward trend in the following trading days. Analysts are debating the reasons for PDD’s share price decline – and whether the current lower price could be a good opportunity for investors to get in.

The conclusion

Can it be said that Nvidia has exceeded expectations when the chipmaker’s performance over the past year has always raised expectations among retail investors that the company will beat expectations?

In the last quarter, Nvidia generated revenue of $30.04 billion, more than the $28.7 billion expected. Even better, the company expects revenue for the current quarter to be around $32.5 billion, which is above the $31.7 billion estimated by analysts.

This boost comes as the company “expects several billion dollars in revenue from Blackwell,” said Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress. Blackwell is Nvidia’s next-generation artificial intelligence chip.

That’s all good news, right? So why did Nvidia stock fall more than 7% in extended trading?

There was a dark shadow, however: Nvidia’s gross margin fell from 78.4% to 75.1% in the current quarter compared to the previous quarter. The company also expects gross margin for the full year to be in the “mid-70 percent range.”

This may be the only number that fell short of consensus expectations. Analysts had expected a margin of 76.4% for the full year.

If margins fall, revenues will not grow as quickly even if sales explode, so that is a legitimate cause for concern.

Nvidia’s results were released after the market closed, but they rattled investors and pulled broader U.S. indices lower on Wednesday.

Investors are generally concerned about the sustainability of the Big Tech boom. Nasdaq-Composite fell by 1.12%, the S&P500 fell by 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.39%.

When U.S. trading resumes on Thursday, Nvidia’s impact on the broader market will likely be more pronounced. The options market “implies a +/- 10 percent move following the earnings release, more than its 7 percent average over the past four quarters,” John Marshall of Goldman Sachs’ derivatives research team said in a note to clients.

If you’re expected to beat expectations, you essentially have to jump two bars, which puts potentially unjustified pressure on a company and its stock.

—CNBC’s Kif Leswing and Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

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