KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) – The University of Tennessee announced Tuesday that the state’s population is expected to grow to nearly eight million by 2040.

According to new projections from the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at UT, the state’s population of people ages 65 and older is expected to increase by 25% compared to the 2022 census estimate.

This increase would also include a 36% increase in the population aged 75 to 84 and a 72% increase in the population aged 85 and over.

From 2020 to 2030, Tennessee is expected to experience annual population growth of 0.82 percent, according to the university, with that rate expected to slow to 0.55 percent annually between 2030 and 2040 and continue through 2070.

“At the state level, population growth in the 2020s will feel similar to the gains over the past decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the new projections. “But as the baby boomer generation reaches the later stages of life, increasing numbers of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population growth.”

While the elderly population is expected to skyrocket by 2040, Tennessee’s youth and working population growth will be slower, according to the university.

According to the study, Tennessee will also become more ethnically diverse by 2040.

By 2040, about 60% of the state’s population growth is expected to be Hispanics, blacks or African Americans, or people of other or multiple races.

The largest share of this is expected to be among Hispanics, who are forecast to make up 9.5 percent of all Tennessee residents by 2040. By comparison, the share of the white population in Tennessee is expected to fall from 72.9 percent in 2022 to 69.2 percent in 2040, according to researchers.

The Boyd Center also identified the following four elements that could lead to changes in the state’s population in future projections:

• Changed basic population
• Increased number of deaths
• Fertility rates
• Changing net migration patterns

Click here to view an interactive dashboard that sorts data by county, region, state, demographic group, and year.

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