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Dutch Bros shares plummet due to “disappointing” growth forecast
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Dutch Bros shares plummet due to “disappointing” growth forecast

The central theses

  • Dutch Bros shares lost more than a fifth of their value in intraday trading on Thursday, a day after the coffee chain forecast low-single-digit store sales growth for 2024.
  • The coffee chain’s second-quarter results beat analysts’ estimates, but the outlook for like-for-like sales was described as “disappointing” by analysts at Wedbush.
  • Analysts said Dutch Bros could see a decline in sales in the second half of the year.

Dutch Bros (BROS) shares lost more than a fifth of their value in intraday trading on Thursday, a day after the coffee chain forecast low-single-digit store sales growth for 2024.

The company reported revenue of $324.9 million and net income of $22.2 million for the quarter, both above analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Revenue rose 30 percent year over year, while profit more than doubled as sales across all Dutch Bros stores rose 4.1 percent.

Dutch Bros raises forecast with modest outlook for the second half of the year

Dutch Bros raised its 2024 revenue forecast to $1.215 billion to $1.23 billion, up from the previous range of $1.2 billion to $1.215 billion. Comparable-store sales growth is expected to be in the low single digits, which analysts said could mean Dutch Bros has a weaker second half of the year after comparable-store growth was 10% and 4.1% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

Wedbush analysts called the confirmation of the same-store sales growth forecast “disappointing” given the positive first half of the year, but said it was not surprising given the company has been conservative in its estimates in the past.

Dutch Bros also said Wednesday that the number of new openings is expected to be at the low end of the previously forecast range of 150 to 165 locations. JPMorgan analysts said the company has been working to “refine” its strategy for opening new locations in terms of real estate and market. However, JPMorgan and Wedbush analysts both maintained their positive ratings on the stock and their price targets of $44 and $45, respectively.

Markets appeared to be focused on new store forecasts and the likelihood that the second half of the year will bring slower comparable-store sales growth or a decline, as Dutch Bros shares fell 22% to $29.46 at 11:35 a.m. ET on Thursday, hitting their lowest level since May.

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