Some private traders view the stock as a bet on whether Trump would win a second term as U.S. president.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), majority owned by former U.S. President Donald Trump, have fallen to a record low after the Republican presidential candidate recently returned to rival social media platform X and his lead in the polls for the upcoming presidential election is dwindling.

Trump Media shares fell to as low as $21.33 on Tuesday, down more than 4 percent. The stock closed down 3.7 percent at $21.42, marking the eighth consecutive loss.

Trump’s dwindling lead in the polls and election betting markets in recent weeks has also hurt the stock, which was viewed by some retail traders as a bet on whether Trump would win a second term.

“I’ve always viewed Truth Social and DJT as a voting mechanism, not an investment mechanism,” said Lou Basenese, president and chief market strategist at MDB Capital in New York. “The valuation never made sense relative to the fundamentals.”

Earlier this month, Trump Media – whose main asset is the Truth Social app – reported a quarterly loss of $16.4 million and revenue of just $837,000. The company has a market value of about $4.3 billion, up from more than $8 billion earlier this year.

The stock hit an all-time high of $79.38 on its Nasdaq debut on March 26 following a merger with blank-check company Digital World Acquisition Corp.

Trump is expected to be able to begin selling his nearly 60 percent stake – or 114.75 million shares – in his social media company when the insider lock-up period expires next month.

“It has always been traded according to its odds of winning or losing, and we’re seeing that now that the race is close and its odds of winning have dropped. And I think it’s hitting record lows, also because you’re running into the insider lock,” Basenese added.

Last week, Trump began posting on the X platform for the first time in nearly a year, coinciding with an interview with owner Elon Musk.

In recent weeks, Trump has lost his considerable lead in the polls over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

With 78 days to go before the November 5 vote, contracts for a Harris victory are trading at 56 cents on political betting platform PredictIt, with a potential payout of $1.

Trump contracts are currently at 46 cents, down from 69 cents in mid-July.