Now that Justin Verlander has successfully completed his rehabilitation, the question is how exactly the six-man rotation will work for the final 38 games of the season.
What it is about
The Astros are fighting for a playoff spot and potentially a bye. They have three days off for the rest of the season. The 2024 Astros’ promotion and the corresponding collapse of the listless Mariners means the Astros have a 5-game lead with just three head-to-head matches remaining. According to Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Astros have an 88.9% chance of winning the division and an 18% chance of getting a bye. Still, the Astros have not been the most consistent team and face a tough challenge with upcoming series against Baltimore, Philadelphia and Kansas City, all of whom appear to be making the playoffs. They currently face a solid Boston team and have tough series against Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego and Arizona in September.
To secure a top-two seed, you would have five days off and avoid the Wild Card game, which most likely involves the third-place team in the AL Central and begins just one day after the last game of the regular season. To secure a bye, you would have five days off.
WHAT IS THE WORKLOAD?
Here’s how much each SP has thrown over the past three seasons at the MLB or minor league level (limited to the regular season and postseason):
Framber Valdez: 226.1 / 210 / 137.2
Hunter Brown: 130/162.2/134.1
Justin Verlander: 195 / 180.2 / 71
Yusei Kikuchi: 100.2 / 169.1 / 138
Ronel Blanco: 51/125.1/134
Spencer Arrighetti: 106.2 / 124.2 / 119
Blanco is breaking new ground. Arrighetti is close. Brown would make it the third week of September, JV is 41 years old and has reached 100 IP in only 2 of the last 5 seasons. Kikuchi seems to be in good shape and Framber looks in great shape.
HOW WOULD THE SIX-MAN SQUAD PLAY IF THEY JUST RIDED STRAIGHT IN?
With 38 games, the math isn’t difficult: Blanco and JV, the starters for today and tomorrow, would start 7 times and the other four starters 6 times. You’d play it straight if all things were equal and all pitchers were equally at risk of fatigue. But we know that’s not the case.
HOW ABOUT YOU JIGGLE IT AROUND?
Framber and Kikuchi are the starters best equipped to sustain the current workload. Framber is the team’s top hitter and Kikuchi has posted 6 ERs in 4 starts and a 2.42 ERA since coming south. Giving them another round is likely to give them one less round to play in the playoffs since they skip the wild card.
I ran a simulation where Framber pitched during that long period of normal (four day) rest, effectively skipping the starting lineup and everyone except Kikuchi. That way, Framber and Kikuchi would start 15 of the final 38 games, instead of just 12 of the final 38 games, with Framber starting 8 times and Kikuchi starting 7. JV would keep his 7th start. After tonight, Blanco would only start 5 of the final 37 games. Brown and Arrighetti would get five more.
DIPLOMA:
I’m sure there are people with spreadsheets who calculate every scenario and get paid to do so. In my view, Blanco and Arrighetti are the two starters who need the most protection. This assessment is simply based on the fact that one of them has already exceeded his previous IP peak and the other will do so in his next start. Although all of the starters have combined to put the team in first place, Framber gives the team the best chance to win. In fact, he’s 8-0 in his last ten starts, all of which resulted in victories for the Astros. And that scenario wouldn’t even stretch Framber. In five of his last eight starts, he would pitch on just four days of rest. Given that he missed a couple of starts in April, he’ll definitely be well below his innings threshold of the last two years.
Brown and Espada haven’t said what they’re going to do, but I really hope they don’t act like all the starters are under the same load in the innings.
