• Existing home sales fell 2% year-over-year in July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million.

• Pending sales fell 3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, both the largest declines in nearly a year.

• Home prices were only 0.7 percent below their record high – one reason why buyers held off despite a decline in mortgage rates.

• Nearly 60,000 home sales contracts were canceled, representing 16 percent of all homes signed for, the highest percentage ever recorded for a July.

• One bright spot: The supply of homes for sale is up a record 14%. That’s partly because listings are stale and piling up, but it also means buyers have more options and room to negotiate.

Existing home sales rose 0.6 percent in July from the previous month, but fell 2 percent from a year earlier — to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,094,991. That’s the lowest July figure since records began in 2012.

Pending sales – a more current measure of demand that includes both existing and newly built homes – fell to the lowest level since any month ever except April 2020, when the pandemic brought the housing market to a standstill. They fell 2.9% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year – both the biggest declines in nearly a year on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Mortgage rates fell in July and continued to fall in August, giving home seekers more Purchasing power– but buyers are slow to respond. That’s likely in part because home prices are still near record highs. The median sales price rose 4.1% year over year in July to $439,170. That’s just 0.7% less than the all-time high of $442,389 reached the previous month.

“When rates finally came down, buyers were excited and we saw more activity. But now that rates have dropped to the mid-6% range, people are waiting to see if they fall any further. However, home prices are rising, so it’s really like there are six of one and half a dozen of the other,” said Nicole Stewarta Redfin real estate agent in Boise, Idaho. “A lot of people are also concerned about the political climate. They can afford to buy, but are holding off because it’s unclear where the country will be in six months. In reality, though, who sits in the Oval Office probably won’t have much of an impact on the real estate market.”

Stewart said she has seen more buyers making more serious deals in recent weeks with the back-to-school season approaching, and Redfin has separately Upward trend in the touring business.

The average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage is currently 6.49%after peaking at 7.22% in early May. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September and continue through 2025, but markets have already priced in a fairly rapid pace of rate cuts, meaning homebuyers are unlikely to see a big drop in mortgage rates any time soon.

“Waiting for mortgage rates to continue to fall is not a surefire strategy,” said Redfin’s chief economist Elias de la Campa“If you have the means to buy and have been thinking about it, now may actually not be a bad time. Mortgage rates have fallen enough to increase your purchasing power, but not enough to attract mass buyers and stimulate competition.”

Real Estate Market Highlights for July 2024: United States

Note: The data is subject to revision

The good news: More homes to choose from and fewer sales above asking price

Aside from the decline in mortgage rates, there are some encouraging signs for homebuyers. For example, the total supply of homes for sale (active listings) rose a record 13.7% in July compared to a year ago.

Many offers on the market are stale as buyers grapple with high costs, causing supply to pile up – giving some buyers room to negotiate. The typical home under contract in July was on the market for 34 days, up from 29 days last year and the longest July since 2020.

Please note that active offers fell 0.6% month-on-month in July – the first seasonally adjusted decline in a year. New listings were little changed from the previous month, and although they rose 2.9% year-on-year, they were still at their lowest level since last July.

Another bright spot for buyers: Only a third of homes (33.2%) sold for more than the asking price, compared to 38.2% last year. This is the lowest share of any July since 2020.

Home buyers are withdrawing from contracts in record numbers

In July, approximately 59,000 home purchase contracts were canceled, representing 15.8% of all homes that went under contract that month—the highest percentage of any July. Redfin’s records for this statistic go back to 2017.

Many home buyers are getting cold feet because housing costs remain high. Economic uncertainty is also high, with a recession Fears on the rise.

Buyers in Florida and Texas were the most likely to pull out of their deals. Real estate markets in both states have slowed down significantly since the pandemic relocation frenzy, with markets on Florida’s west coast cooling Faster than anywhere else in the country, amid rising supply and a climate-related Insurance Crisis.

In Tampa, 1,266 home purchase contracts were were canceled in July, representing 21.9% of homes under contract that month – a higher share than any other major city. Next were Fort Lauderdale (21.8%) and San Antonio (21.8%). The lowest shares were in Nassau County (5.4%), San Francisco (6.1%) and San Jose (7%).

Note: Homes that had a contract expiring in a given month may not necessarily have had a new contract signed in the same month. For example, a home that had a contract expiring in July may have had a contract signed in June.

Metro-level highlights: July 2024

The following bullet points are based on a list of the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. Some metropolitan areas may be removed from time to time to ensure data accuracy. A complete metropolitan-level data table can be found on the Download tab of the dashboard in the monthly portion of the Redfin Data center. Please note our Metric definition page for explanations of the metrics used in this report. Metropolitan-level data are not seasonally adjusted. All changes listed below represent changes from the previous year.

• Prices: Median sales prices increased most year-over-year in New Brunswick, NJ (14.6%), Detroit (13.5%) and Newark, NJ (12%). They fell in only two metropolitan areas – Austin, TX (-2.6%) and Dallas (-1.2%) – and remained unchanged in San Antonio.
• Pending Sales: Pending sales increased the most in San Francisco (13.5%), San Jose, CA (13.3%) and Newark (12.7%). They decreased the most in Houston (-22.1%), Minneapolis (-11.8%) and Atlanta (-9.8%).
• Completed home sales: Home sales rose the most in San Jose (26.7%), San Francisco (17.4%) and Providence, Rhode Island (17.3%). They fell the most in West Palm Beach, Florida (-7.7%), Detroit (-5.1%) and Austin (-4.1%).
• Active offers: The number of active listings increased the most in Tampa, FL (51.8%), Cincinnati (49.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (49.1%). Only in one metropolis – Chicago (-1.6%) – did they decrease, and in New York (0.7%) and Milwaukee (0.9%) they increased by less than 1%.
• New listings: The number of new admissions increased the most in Providence (20.1%), San Jose (19.2%) and Las Vegas (18.4%). They decreased the most in Atlanta (-15.1%), Portland, Oregon (-12%) and Houston (-11.1%).
• Sold above list price: In Newark, 69% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metropolitan areas analyzed by Redfin. This was followed by San Jose (65.5%) and Nassau County, NY (60.6%). The lowest shares were in West Palm Beach (7.8%), Miami (11.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (12.2%).