We recently published a list of Beer loses its fizz while spirits gain popularity: Top 10 stocks to buy. In this article, we take a look at how Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) compares to other spirits stocks.
As we approach the end of 2024, the alcoholic beverage industry is also changing. Data from the Distilled Spirits Council (DSC) shows that spirits continue to gain ground on beer, which is traditionally the alcoholic beverage of choice. In 2023, spirits held more than 42% of the total market, an increase of 13 percentage points since 2000. These changes come at a time when Americans’ attitudes toward alcohol are changing significantly. For example, in a very detailed survey conducted by Gallup, participants were asked a variety of questions about their drinking habits and their perception of the role of alcohol in society.
Compared to participants surveyed in 2001, when 22% of participants considered alcohol beneficial to health, in 2023 this figure dropped by more than half, reaching 10%, the lowest level in two decades. Likewise, DSC data confirmed that 47% of participants had most frequently drunk beer in 1992, but not only did this percentage drop to 37% in 2023, but the figures for wine and spirits increased from 27% and 21% to 29% and 31% respectively.
In 1987, 29% did not drink alcohol in the past week, compared to 33% in 2023. Other research also shows that between 2001 and 2023, 72% of 18-34 year olds reported having had a drink in the past year, while this figure fell to 62% in 2024. This suggests that the trend towards lower alcohol consumption is mainly driven by young people, as percentages increased among both 35-54 year olds and those over 55.
Building on that, while declining alcohol consumption may intuitively sound bad for the spirits industry as it contributes to lower sales, the reality might be a little different. This is because lower intensity of alcohol consumption leads to better health outcomes and more long-term sales for the alcohol companies. In addition, as demand for spirits increases, younger drinkers are more likely to focus on sweeter drinks like tequila or its close cousin mezcal. This is because sales of America’s most popular spirit, vodka, stagnated in 2023, while tequila/mezcal sales grew 7.9% annually to $6.5 billion, approaching vodka’s dominant market position of $7.2 billion.
In addition, Americans continue to value convenience, as the fastest-growing spirits category is premixed cocktails, or ready-to-drink alcohol. Although the category’s market share is relatively small at $2.8 billion, it grew 26.8% annually and was the only spirit with a double-digit percentage market share increase.
While it’s possible that the decline in alcohol consumption is due to a health-conscious population (39% believed alcohol was harmful to health in 2023, up from 27% in 2001), it’s also possible that other recreational products like cannabis and psychedelics are taking over. For cannabis, 2024 has proven to be a pivotal year, as increasing legalization and decriminalization will allow more consumers to try it. In this regard, data collected by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) provides insight. SAMSA’s 2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health found that 50.8%, or 139.7 million people, reported drinking alcohol. The same survey for 2022 found that number dropped to 48.7%, or 137.4 million people. Crucially, in 2019, 54.3% or 18.3 million people aged 18 to 25 had drunk alcohol in the last month, while in 2022 this figure was 50.2% or 17.5 million.
So it is clear that alcohol consumption has decreased between 2019 and 2022. Marijuana use, on the other hand, is increasing. In 2019, 35.4% of the same age group were marijuana users, which was significantly higher than the 29.8% in 2002. In total, 17.5% or 48.2 million people used marijuana last year, 2019, up from 11% in 2002. In 2022, that number had risen to 61.9 million people. Another important study that directly analyzes whether marijuana is gaining popularity over alcohol comes from the Addiction Journal. It analyzes SAMHSA data between 1992 and 2022 and reports a 15-fold increase in cannabis use per capita.
In terms of numbers, 17.7 million people reported using cannabis daily or almost daily in 2022, three million more than the 14.7 million who consumed alcohol. The intensity of cannabis use was also higher: the average cannabis user reported using cannabis for 15 to 16 days in the past month, while the average drinker drank for 5 to 6 days.
To summarize, alcohol consumption is currently declining, younger drinkers are preferring sweeter drinks and spirits over vodka and beer, and cannabis use is on the rise. With these details in mind, let’s look at the ten best alcoholic beverage stocks to buy.
Our methodology
To create our list of the top 10 alcohol stocks to buy, we ranked the 40 most valuable alcoholic beverage companies traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ by the number of hedge funds that purchased the stocks in the first quarter of 2024. From this, we selected the stocks with the highest number of hedge fund users.
Why do we care about the stocks hedge funds invest in? The reason is simple: Our research has shown that we can outperform the market by mimicking the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks each quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (Further details can be found here).
A closeup of several cans of freshly brewed beer in a commercial brewery.
Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV)
Number of hedge fund investors in Q1 2024: 14
Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) is one of the largest brewers in the world and has significant market share and brand recognition through its products such as Corona and Budweiser. This means the company has an established market position and less pressure to grow compared to upstarts. At the same time, as we highlighted in the introduction to this article, spirits are rapidly gaining market share over beer, meaning Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) could see a volume decline in the future. Its best-known brands are beer, and the company could benefit from the fact that some of the largest markets for Corona are Argentina and Brazil. Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV), like other spirits and alcoholic beverage stocks, relies on inflation for its stock performance, and the lower the inflation, the higher the volumes shipped.
During the second quarter 2024 conference call, Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) management remained optimistic about the strengths of its brand, stating:
“Corona, in the super premium category, is the brand with the highest brand health to market share ratio on the market. And it represents values such as balance, joy of life, travel and relaxation. In addition, it has distinctive packaging and a liquid made from 100% natural ingredients that is more refreshing. Spaten, in the premium category, is one of the fastest growing brands on the market. And it has very clear beer credentials that position it as a beer authority in Brazil. It was voted the best pure malt beer in Brazil by a group of beer specialists in a survey conducted by the newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo. Budweiser is the most emerging core-plus brand on the market. It is considered a cult and youth brand through its global events such as the World Cup and international music festivals such as Lollapalooza and Tomorrowland.”
Total ABEV 9th place on our list of the best spirits stocks to buy. While we recognize ABEV’s potential as an investment, we believe some AI stocks promise higher returns and do so in a shorter time frame. If you’re looking for an AI stock that’s more promising than ABEV but trades at less than 5 times its earnings, read our report on the cheapest AI stock.
READ MORE: Analyst sees new $25 billion ‘opportunity’ for NVIDIA and the 10 best stocks to buy for Q3 2024, according to Bank of America.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published on Insider Monkey.
