After a week of wild market swings, investors are now looking to inflation data, corporate earnings and presidential polls for signals that could contain the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock market.

After months of quiet trading, volatility in U.S. stocks has spiked this month as a series of alarming data coincided with the unwinding of a massive yen-fueled carry trade, sending stocks into their worst sell-off of the year. The S&P 500 .SPX is still about 6% below its record high hit last month, although it has regained ground in a series of rallies following Monday’s devastating sell-off.

For many investors, the development of the US economy is a problem. After having bet on a soft landing for the US economy for months, they quickly calculated the risk of a more severe downturn after last week’s weaker-than-expected production and employment data.

“Everyone is worried about the economy now,” said Bob Kalman, portfolio manager at Miramar Capital. “We’re moving away from the greed part of the program and now the market is facing fear of significant geopolitical risk, a hotly contested election and volatility that isn’t going away.”

Although stock prices have risen in recent days, traders believe it will take some time for markets to settle down. In fact, the historical behavior of the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX – which posted its biggest daily jump ever on Monday – shows that bouts of volatility typically take months to dissipate.

The index is considered Wall Street’s fear barometer, measuring demand for options to protect against market fluctuations. When it closes above 35 – an elevated level it crossed on Monday – it takes the index an average of 170 sessions to get back to 17.6, its long-term median and a level that is associated with far less extreme investor fear, a Reuters analysis shows.

A possible flashpoint will be the release of consumer price data in the US on Wednesday. Signs that inflation is falling too sharply could heighten fears that the Federal Reserve has sent the economy into a tailspin by keeping interest rates high for too long, thereby contributing to market turmoil.

The futures markets are currently pricing in a 55 percent probability that the central bank will cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in September. A month ago, the probability was around 5 percent.

“Slower payroll growth underscores that economic risks in the U.S. are becoming more two-sided as inflation eases and activity slows,” Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, said in a recent note.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings were neither strong nor weak enough to give the market direction, said Charles Lemonides, head of hedge fund ValueWorks LLC.

Overall, according to LSEG data, companies in the S&P 500 reported second-quarter results that were 4.1 percent above expectations, in line with the long-term average of 4.2 percent above expectations.

Walmart WMT.N and Home Depot HD.N are among the companies reporting earnings next week, with results expected to provide insight into the state of U.S. consumers after months of elevated interest rates.

At the end of the month, earnings will be announced by chip giant Nvidia NVDA.O, whose shares have risen about 110% this year despite a recent sell-off. The Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, scheduled for Aug. 22-24, will give policymakers another opportunity to refine their monetary policy message ahead of their September meeting.

Lemonides believes the recent volatility represents a healthy correction during an otherwise strong bull market, and he initiated a position in Amazon.com AMZN.O to profit from the company’s weakness.

The US presidential election campaign is also likely to cause further uncertainty.

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the Nov. 5 presidential race, according to an Ipsos poll released Thursday. Harris, the vice president, entered the race on July 21 when President Joe Biden suspended his campaign after a disastrous June 27 debate performance against Trump.

With nearly three months to go until the November 5 vote, investors must prepare for many more unexpected twists and turns in an election year that is already one of the most dramatic in recent history.

“While early events painted a clearer picture of the outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections, more recent events have again cast doubt on the outcome,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.

Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer for value at Gabelli Funds, believes the election will increase market volatility. At the same time, expected rate cuts in September could trigger a rotation into areas of the market that have lagged in a year dominated by Big Tech, he said.

“We expect increased volatility in the run-up to the election, but the underlying rotation will continue as lower interest rates offset economic weakness,” he said.