It was an exciting, if sometimes uncertain, year for the GLP-1 business.

Just take a look at the past week. On Wednesday, Novo Nordisk (NVO) missed Wall Street estimates for second-quarter GLP-1 sales, citing ongoing supply shortages of weight-loss drug Wegovy. The stock fell 7% on the news.

But on Thursday, Eli Lilly (LLY) beat Wall Street estimates for its GLP-1 sales. The company beat Wall Street’s quarterly forecasts by 13% — with combined sales of $4.3 billion for weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro. The stock rose more than 10% on Thursday as Lilly’s signals that supply constraints are easing also benefited Novo. The stock rose 5% on the day.

In the background, there are other competing candidates that are slowly approaching their stock market debut. Maurits Pot, founder and CEO of Tema ETFs, for example, told Yahoo Finance that there will soon be several players in the market.

“We think this will become a four to six horse race over time, because right now there is only one device that is injectable and results in one treatment, which is weight loss. But we are seeing innovation in parts of the market where we are seeing people considering oral rather than injectables. People are interested in applications beyond weight loss,” Pot said.

For this reason, some people believe that trying to control short-term market movements based on quarterly results is not a good strategy.

“Lilly is a reminder that it’s foolish to look at any of these names on a 90-day basis when the market is worth over $100 billion,” Jared Holz, healthcare sector expert at Mizuho, ​​told Yahoo Finance.

But it is precisely this huge market potential that makes investors nervous.

“Ultimately, in dollar terms, it is still the most significant market in the entire pharmaceutical and biotech industry,” he said.

With this in mind, here is the situation of some industry players after announcing their second quarter results:

NovoNordisk: Despite the drop in Wegovy sales, Denmark’s Novo remains the market leader in terms of its share of the GLP-1 market. CEO Lars Jørgensen said the company has a 69% share worldwide, and diabetes drug Ozempic leads with 46%. The company also won approval for Wegovy for patients at risk of heart disease. However, it could lose its lead after delaying an FDA application for GLP-1 to treat heart failure until early next year. Rival Lilly reiterated its forecast to file the application this year.

Eli Lilly: Lilly’s weight-loss drug Zepbound has completed its second full quarter on the market, becoming a blockbuster faster than any of the other three new GLP-1 drugs on the market – despite supply shortages and a lack of reimbursement from major employers and the federal government. Lilly has now submitted an FDA application for Zepbound to treat sleep apnea, which could change the reimbursement hurdle. Meanwhile, Lilly’s drugs have been removed from the FDA’s shortage list and launched in some new markets around the world. The company is also focusing on bringing its oral version, orforglipron, to market to improve access and give patients more options.

The story continues

Pfizer: Pfizer (PFE) is no longer seen as a near-term threat after suffering a setback with its oral GLP-1 candidate danugliprone. The company had to scrap its twice-daily pill and opt for once-daily doses that are still in mid-stage testing. However, the company could still secure a piece of the pie as demand will continue to outstrip supply.

Roche: The Swiss-based company (RHHBY) has bet almost $3 billion on biotech company Carmot Therapeutics and, as a result, acquired several GLP-1 candidates. The investment is already yielding a return. Both an injectable and an oral candidate in early-stage trials are showing promising results with comparable weight loss to the current market leaders. This gives the big pharma the opportunity to invest in and develop candidates more efficiently than if they were still under the biotech brand. The deal was completed earlier this year.

Amgen: One of the most promising and differentiated candidates in trials is Amgen’s (AMGN) MariTide. It could be used less frequently (once a month) than the current once-weekly injectable GLP-1 preparations. It also has a similar weight loss profile to the current market leaders. It is already in Phase II of clinical testing but is expected to enter the final phase, Phase III, in the near future. CFO Peter Griffith told Yahoo Finance that the company is also preparing for further trials in obesity-related diseases. So far this year, the company has increased its research and development budget by 30%.

Vikings: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), the Switzerland-based biotech company, has had a pretty good year. Its stock is up more than 200% through 2024 thanks to promising results from its oral pill. That also makes Viking a takeover target, according to Mizuho’s Holz. That’s because the company is now competing with big players that can invest in drug trials much faster. Even if Viking were acquired at a 100% premium, it would still be a bargain for a buyer, Holz said. Consider that daily market movements at both Lilly and Novo are many times higher than Viking’s total market value, he said.

For him and her: The telemedicine and mail-order platform (HIMS) is another player in the weight-loss craze. While it doesn’t make injectable drugs, it plans to buy a pharmacy so it can continue to offer GLP-1 — which is approved by the FDA for drugs on the shortage list. The company only recently decided to offer the drugs after previously only being in the supportive business for patients. In the second quarter, the company reported $16 million in revenue from selling GLP-1. But once the shortage of branded GLP-1 is over, the future is uncertain. CFO Yemi Okupe told Yahoo Finance that the company was already seeing an increase in business before adding GLP-1. But adding GLP-1 has given Hims a boost. Hims remains a company to watch because it and other similar platforms offer these services for cash rather than through insurance, indicating demand for the products as insurers continue to avoid coverage.

Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance and covers all things related to pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and policy. Follow Anjalee on all social media platforms @AnjKhem.

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