At the end of the 2022 season, Trevor Lawrence was a rising star on an up-and-coming team. He had orchestrated an incredible comeback win over the Chargers in the wild-card round, throwing for 288 yards and four touchdowns, then his Jaguars had given the eventual champion Chiefs a mild scare the following week.

By the end of the 2023 season, however, Lawrence was widely viewed as a disappointment – drifting toward the bust zone, if not all the way there. The internet was full of jokes about young talent. Everything good Lawrence had accomplished the year before had essentially been undone.

Today, we no longer know Lawrence is a fantasy prospect—he’s buried at No. 18 on the QB list in our Yahoo rankings—and the world has moved on to hyping the Texans and Colts as emerging AFC South powers. As far as reputation goes, Lawrence is somewhere between an enigma and a flop.

But it’s probably worth noting that Lawrence is only 24 years old. He’s been a high-level athlete for so long that it feels like he should be 30, but no. Lawrence is actually three years younger than Joe Burrow and one year younger than Jordan Love. He’s just one year older than newly drafted Jayden Daniels. We’re talking about a quarterback who still has a lot of development ahead of him.

Let us also show that Lawrence is capable of completing throws that are absolutely disgusting and beyond the capabilities of many NFL starters:

It’s not as if the excitement surrounding his arrival in the league is the result of a collective delusion. Lawrence actually has some skills.

We certainly won’t try to convince you that his 2023 season was secretly outstanding, because that’s not really a defensible position to be in. He threw 14 interceptions in his 16 games, which is way too many, and his adjusted yards per attempt dropped to 6.7 – tied with Justin Fields and just ahead of Gardner Minshew (6.5). Not great.

Lawrence did do some things well last season, however. According to PFF, he was among the league’s leaders in long throws (35) and had a passer rating of 114.9 on long attempts. He threw 11 touchdown passes on attempts of 20 yards or more, tying with Brock Purdy for the most passes in the NFL.

Still, let’s not overstate the impressive performance of a 21-touchdown, 14-interception season in which his team went 9-8 and completely collapsed in December. Lawrence played through injury last year, it’s worth noting, but he wasn’t exactly at his best before the ankle sprain.

If you are looking for a fact about his otherwise more third season that gives you real hope should be the scandalous number of near misses and devastating drops in Jacksonville’s passing game last year. Lawrence certainly led the NFL in college touchdowns from 12″ inbounds last year (not a real stat) and his receivers dropped 26 passes, one of the highest totals in the league.

Just look at all these moves that could have been huge successes:

In a game where the difference between success and disaster is so slim, the tide can turn quickly. We shouldn’t write off a player as young and strikingly talented as Lawrence at such an early stage in his career. Plus, he’s an understated dual-threat player who has nine points over the past two seasons.

Calvin Ridley, the Jags’ best receiver last year, left via free agency, which is clearly a big departure. But Lawrence will still have Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and newcomer Gabe Davis at his disposal, along with a 6’4″ first-round rookie with 4.33 speed:

Brian Thomas Jr. was a spectacular big-play receiver at LSU last year, averaging 17.3 yards per catch and reaching the end zone 17 times. His best qualities fit almost perfectly with the areas in which his new quarterback has also excelled. This pairing should provide a number of highlights in the coming season.

But if you’re not going to take Lawrence in 2023 after a largely unhelpful year… well, fine. That stance probably won’t help you in a fantasy league with only one quarterback and typical size and shape. As a general rule, though, we shouldn’t assign undrafted status to 24-year-old players with obvious talent and respectable track records.

Lawrence was the 7th overall quarterback just a year ago; he clearly has the ability (and the players) to get back to that level. He’s an option with potential at a rock-bottom price in the draft.