Since Bitcoin’s inception, there has been debate and conjecture about the identity of its enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This suspicion has recently escalated in light of the upcoming HBO documentary claiming to reveal Satosh’s true identity.

Prediction market Polymarket is now taking bets on who the documentary calls the real Satoshi. Numerous well-known candidates lead the predictions, which is surprising given the platform’s results. According to Polymarket betting results as of October 8, 2024, Len Sassaman is in the lead with a 45 percent chance of becoming Satoshi.

Sassaman, a cryptographer and privacy advocate, has long been considered a potential candidate given his familiarity with cypherpunk communities and extensive knowledge of the field. Despite his tragic death in 2011, many consider Sassaman a good candidate due to his extensive experience in cryptography. Source: Polymarket

Second place with a 15% chance goes to Hal Finney, a pioneer of cryptography and one of the first users of Bitcoin. Finney is known for receiving the first-ever Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto, and speculation has increased about his role in the early stages of the cryptocurrency.

Some speculate that Finney knew Satoshi’s true identity or was operating under his pseudonym. Other well-known people with significantly lower odds include Nick Szabo and Adam Back with 2% and 7% respectively. The origin of Bitcoin is commonly attributed to Szabo, a computer scientist known for his work on digital contracts.

The betting markets have doubts about his claim to be Nakamoto despite these connections. Although it is less likely that Adam Back, the creator of Hashcash, is Satoshi, he has also been suspected as such. What’s notable is that Craig Wright, openly posing as Nakamoto, only has a 1% chance of winning. His controversial claim was widely dismissed by the Bitcoin community due to a lack of convincing evidence.

Finally, 38% of bettors believe the documentary will either name more than one person or won’t reveal who Satoshi is. The cryptocurrency world continues to watch and speculate as the HBO documentary release date approaches with no clear answers.