Be honest: At the beginning of the season, did you predict a round of the American League Division Series that would include the New York Yankees (plausibly) and three AL Central teams, none of which are the Minnesota Twins (are you kidding)?

In the National League it comes as less of a surprise. The league’s powers – the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres – are still alive, and in a thrilling three-game wild-card win by the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers, there really was no result to match that lead could be described as a surprise.

The Wildcard round was exciting to watch, but now it’s time to move on, for the winners and for the teams that were waiting to find out the identity of their LDS opponent.

Let’s take a first look at the pairings, taking into account the views of the teams that followed the first round with us. What did they see that might make them think? What have they seen that might amaze them?

Let’s judge. Teams are listed in order of the most worried about the least worried, but here’s a spoiler: none of the four bye teams should be worry-free.

Opponent: San Diego Padres

As resilient as the Atlanta Braves have been in the face of one serious injury after another, the Dodgers had to literally keep their fingers crossed in hopes of an upset in Atlanta. Of course they would never say that publicly, but that’s human nature. Because while the Dodgers have the Shohei Show and Mookie Betts and another strong regular season behind them, the Padres look like an absolute wrecking ball.

In terms of winning percentage, these were the two best teams in baseball since the All-Star break. The Padres (43-20) hold the top spot over the Dodgers (42-23), but while LA went 24-10 at home during that time, San Diego went 24-12 on the road. The Padres won’t be worried about playing at Dodger Stadium or anywhere else.

For the Dodgers, the wild card round featured a Padres team that not only dominated Atlanta, but did so in a way that reflected exactly the October team San Diego wants to be. In a bracket where longballs and runs were generally hard to come by, the Padres went deep three times and had the highest average exit velocity of the eight teams (90.6 mph, according to TruMedia). They were aggressive and got the bat to the ball, giving them the lowest strikeout rate in the wild card round. On the pitching side, they struck out 23 whiffs with one walk against Atlanta.

With Shohei Ohtani and Betts, the Dodgers have the two best players in this series. The Dodgers also have more top-to-bottom power in the lineup. However, when you look at these teams against each other, it’s harder than you might think to make a comprehensive argument for why exactly you would pick the Dodgers to win. In fact, the predictive power of regular season matchups is zero, but the fact is that the Padres won eight of the 13 matchups.

None of this means the Dodgers can’t or won’t win. It just means they start this series more or less on equal footing with their biggest rival, who is hungry for the first World Series title he knows he can win.

Dodgers concern level: High, and it should be.

Opponent: New York Mets

This is the Phillies’ third straight postseason and they have made at least the NLCS in their last two games. The team’s core has remained largely intact – a group that has weathered the difficult October crisis together – and has resulted in many victories in high-stakes games.

The 2024 edition of the Phillies appeared to be the best we’ve ever seen for most of this season and laid claim to being the best team in the majors. The Phillies’ 95 wins were five more than last season and eight more than the 2022 team that went to the World Series. Philadelphia won its first league title in 13 years.

All of these things are reasons why the Phillies are a team with a lot of pride heading into the NLDS. Nevertheless, the Phillies did not end the season optimally. And they now face a Mets team that has been in full swing in playoff mode for more than a week.

The Phillies won more than they lost down the stretch, but they did so while wielding a five-run-per-game hammer that likely won’t show up against New York’s pitching staff. While they scored points in all of these September runs, they gave them up at a rate of 4.9 per contest. The rotation ERA was an MLB-worst 5.68.

Philadelphia looked hard for starting pitching options, but it wasn’t just the relievers that were behind that number. Really, only Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez were completely at their best. Even Aaron Nola had some issues, particularly with keeping the ball in the park.

It feels like the Phillies have been stuck in waiting mode for weeks, waiting for this series to arrive, no matter who the opponent would be. The Mets are coming off a hard-fought three-game series win against a Milwaukee club that had a better run differential than the Phillies in the regular season. This win came after the thrilling win the next day of the season against Atlanta that helped them get into the playoffs in the first place.

This is another rivalry series and it will be intense. We’ll see if Philly is willing to adjust to the frequency that the Mets are already more than accustomed to.

Phillies Concern Level: Bring it on.

Opponent: Detroit Tigers

You don’t have to tell the Guardians that the Tigers and Kansas City Royals can play – they went 12-14 against those clubs in the regular season, with a run differential of minus-19 in those games. Still, it’s safe to assume that the Guardians fully expect to welcome the Houston Astros to Progressive Field on Saturday.

Despite being divisional opponents, Cleveland and Detroit played the last of their 13 head-to-head meetings on July 30. The Guardians were in addition mode that day – trade deadline day – and added newcomer Lane Thomas to their lineup. The Tigers suffered setbacks back then, and you could understand why: Cleveland went 5-0 and is 15 games ahead of Detroit in the division standings.

Given that the Guardians haven’t seen the Tigers since their rocket boomed, one has to assume that Cleveland is a little confused about seeing them again. Who are these guys and what did they do to the old Tigers?

The Guardians are the youngest baseball team based on overall average age, but this calculation takes the entire season into account. This post-deadline version of the Tigers is even younger. The Guardians thrived all season with a deep airlock of a bullpen; The Tigers have built a very similar apparatus and have worked their way through many games from hull to stern.

You could keep going. The Guardians have the best position player in the series in Jose Ramirez, but there is no one in the Cleveland rotation that comes close to the level that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is currently at.

This is a new Tigers puzzle for the Guardians to solve, and they’ll find the problem more difficult to solve than it was in Cleveland’s last game against Detroit.

Guardian Concern Level: Wait, where are the Astros?

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

There’s an easy David versus Goliath narrative this season, but to view it that way would be to overstate the Yankees’ strengths and downplay the Royals’ virtues.

The Yankees are pretty big favorites and should be, but on paper that’s not a mismatch. In addition to the best record in the AL, New York also had the best run differential in the AL (plus-147) – but the Royals were tied for second with the Astros (plus-91). If you believe in such omens, you could argue that this is a meeting of the AL’s two best teams.

The Yankees can take solace in the tremendous advantage in pure firepower they enjoy with the Juan Soto-Aaron Judge tandem. The Royals have a parade of lefties to throw to Soto, although he doesn’t care about equilaterality. They have a well-contrasting right-back duo in Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber that they can throw at Judge in key spots. However, this assumes that the timing around the three-batter requirement allows for such matchup specialization. If they roll, there are no good answers for the Soto-Judge stack anyway.

But if the Royals can neutralize Soto or Judge (or both), the Royals will be one of the few clubs with elite talent that can compete with the Yankees, thanks to Bobby Witt Jr. Witt, the long-awaited successor to George Brett As the face of the franchise, you probably know the story behind this once fierce but long-dormant rivalry. board celebrated on the Yankees, and if Witt succeeds Brett in that regard as well, the Yankees could be in for a long week.

The Yankees should be confident in this matchup. They were the best team in the AL and are the clear favorites. But they shouldn’t be overconfident because this Royals team has better starting pitching, more speed, better team defense and arguably a superior bullpen right now. In other words, this Royals team can beat them, and a lot depends on New York’s ability to capitalize on that big edge in firepower.

Yankees Level of Concern: Mediocre, with the potential for hubris.