How defensive systems will shape the NFL’s passing game in 2024

8 days ago

In the mid-2010s, the NFL saw a rise in the passing offense, which caused the running game to take a backseat. The 2015 and 2016 seasons saw more than 480 passing yards per game – the highest passing seasons in league history. Those same seasons saw fewer than 220 rushing yards per game, the lowest since 1999.

The number of passes per game was relatively consistent in 2020, but as the 2024 season begins, it appears that the decline has continued for five years. In Weeks 1 through 3 of recent seasons, passing yards per game have dropped from 496 in 2020 to 491 in 2021, 462 in 2022, 444 in 2023 and just 403 so far in 2024.

If this trend continues, 2024 will see the fewest passing yards per game since 1993.

What explains the trend?

Several factors are at play, but one key change is the increased use of multiple security measures in defense systems. The following examples show that the defense has adopted formations such as Cover 2, Cover 4 and Cover 6. According to Next Gen Stats, the percentage of two-high safety looks on pass attempts has increased from 44% in 2019 to 63% in 2024.

Beyond pre-snap categorization, Next Gen Stats player location data provides deeper insights. The chart below shows where all defensive players were positioned at the snap in Weeks 1-3 of the 2024 season compared to the same period in 2019. Color intensity shows changes in players’ positioning probabilities – red indicates increased defensive presence and blue stands for a reduced presence.

The 2024 season shows a significant change, especially with more two-high safety looks. In 2019, defensive backs played more of a press on the outside with a single high safety (closed midfield), while in 2024 the pattern resembles a “red crab” with linebackers or hybrid defensive backs 4-6 yards from the field Positioned are line and two split safeties (middle field open) 10-15 yards deep. Notably, this does not account for post-snap rotations, but this graph reproduced for one and two seconds post-snap does not look significantly different.

These defensive adjustments could also explain other early trends in 2024. For example, average air yards per pass attempt fell to 7.7 yards – the lowest in over a decade and almost a full yard less than in 2019. Deep pass attempts – throws over 20 yards downfield – are down from 10, 2 per game in 2019 down to 7.7 per game in 2024.

Defenses are evolving to counter aerial attacks, and the effects are clear – we’re seeing fewer passing yards, shorter throws and fewer deep passes in the first three weeks.