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At the quarter end of the season, or as close to it as possible, let’s look at the backup running backs who outperformed the starting running back in rush success rate (minimum 20 carries). I use success rate based on the percentage of yards needed, adjusted for down, for a first down or touchdown. Statistics courtesy of TruMedia.

Why are we doing this? I’m not saying success rate is predictive. I say it describes who performed better on the same teams with the same offensive lines and play-callers. If we know it, we can be sure the teams know it too. So you can assume that the backup will eventually be ready for further transfers or even take over the starter. We want to be a day early, never a day late.

For reference, the NFL average for running back success rate so far in 2024 is 38.8% (minimum 20 rushes). You can explore The full table can be found here.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown 58.6%
• Zack Moss 31.3%
• Difference: 27.4 points

The market believed that Brown was better primarily because of his attributes. Moss has been the better pick in ADP so far and a very profitable player. But Brown closed the gap in touches and opportunities as both a runner and receiver in Week 4 and had his best week yet. Moss was the RB18, Brown was the RB31. However, you can’t let your backup overtake you in terms of success rate and expect you to keep the job. It is expected that Brown will be promoted and Moss will be relegated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We expected this since White was terribly inefficient last year and is somehow even less efficient in 2024. No one knew what Irving could do or whether his lack of size limited him to a fullback role. Last week the backcourt contacts were evenly split, but this week I said I would definitely prefer to be the Irving manager. Remember, there is no certainty that Irving will take the top job, but I would pay for a 25 to 50 percent chance that Irving will be the primary defender.

New York Jets

The Jets appear to be committed to Breece Hall. But he was a second-round pick, and I don’t think you’d find a personnel manager in the NFL who thinks Allen shouldn’t have been a second-round pick given his previous size, speed and production. We can’t read the team’s collective thoughts, but they really shouldn’t settle on Hall over Allen. Right now, however, you can only pay with about a 50 percent chance that Allen will be the goalie and RB in at least one of three series. Allen should 100% be the goalie considering Hall cost the team the game on Sunday by not scoring, but this is the Jets. Halle is currently RB13.

Atlanta Falcons

This differs from Hall and Allen. The Falcons have committed to Robinson. I know it’s all draft capital. It was stupid to recruit Robinson considering how good Allgeier was, but they won’t reverse course. Allgeier will play and could continue to outperform Robinson per carry. But he needs an injury or a trade, which is certainly possible and would probably be preferred by the team so they don’t have to answer the question of why Allgeier isn’t playing anymore and constantly embarrassing the front office if Robinson is selected. Robinson is RB20 in PPR.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Bigsby was drafted by this front office. It wasn’t Etienne. The team is 0-4. Bigsby has clearly outperformed Etienne, who doesn’t seem to be a bell cow type anyway. I was embarrassed to say how good Bigsby was in the preseason considering the stiff competition, but that carried over. I would be shocked if a healthy Bigsby doesn’t outperform Etienne in the future.

Tennessee Titans

Pollard is tied with Zack Moss at RB18 so far and is averaging about 14.6 points per game. Spears has chronic knee problems and literally no anterior cruciate ligament as he already suffers from arthritis. Maybe Spears just can’t do more than he did. From what I’ve seen of the Titans, Pollard looks better and more explosive than that success rate suggests. But I hate questioning objective data. Spears has no explosive runs (12+ yards in the model according to TruMedia) and Pollard is slightly below average at 7.3%.

New England Patriots

Stevenson has a fumble problem. I think fumbles are at least 50% accidental, but we have to acknowledge it and worry about it. Additionally, Gibson was more effective. The Patriots are committed to Stevenson beyond this year – he is the seventh-highest paid RB in football. I would actually look to trade for Stevenson now, given the heat the fumble issue is generating in fantasy. My stance on this remains unchanged in light of this report, which of course drives the price down even further. Stevenson is RB25 in scoring heading into Week 5.

Green Bay Packers

Jacobs will not be benched. He probably won’t lose any carries. But Matt LaFleur is a committee coach, just like Sean McVay is a Bell coach. So the gravity will be on Wilson exceeding August expectations and Jacobs underperforming them. But I think that hurts Jacobs more than it helps Wilson. There’s no doubt that Wilson should be included in the roster, but I don’t see a good chance of him being a proactive starter in our game. Jacobs is RB28 in points.

Notables

Rico Dowdle is just RB34, one spot behind Allen, but his success rate is elite – ninth-best 47.1%. It’s crazy that he’s available in almost half of fantasy leagues with no waivers. The Cowboys offense should still be at least in the top 10 in points scored. Ezekiel Elliott is ranked 46th out of 53 with a success rate of 29.2%.

Alexander Mattison hasn’t managed it with 17 runs so far, but he’s just destroying the least successful runner in football, Zamir White47.1% to 18.4%. The Raiders should have no loyalty whatsoever to White, who was selected in the fourth round of the draft. But White’s success rate in 2023 was a whopping 51%.

(Top photo by Chase Brown: Matt Kelley/Getty Images)