The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have played two of the toughest schedules in the NFL so far this season, with both teams in good or better shape heading into their important game in Week 5.

The 3-1 Bucs bounced back from a bad home loss to give the Eagles a run for their money last Sunday. The Falcons managed their second game-winning drive of the season in the final minute to tie their record at 2-2.

The Bucs have led the NFC South for the past four seasons and are now in pole position heading into Thursday’s game in Atlanta. The teams split their meetings a year ago, with the away team winning both.

But the Bucs are preparing for a completely different Atlanta team than the one they’ve seen before. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins ​​got off to a slow start but delivered in some key spots and distributed the ball well. The Falcons also still have room for improvement offensively.

Atlanta is 1-0 in the division but 1-2 at home so far. Thursday will provide a great opportunity to bounce back from two narrow losses to the Steelers and Chiefs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Every Falcons game this season has come down to the last minute. Are we in for another exciting thriller on Thursday?

Here are four things to watch for when the Buccaneers visit the Falcons on Thursday night on Prime Video NFL+:

1) Bucs are still looking for consistency on offense. Baker Mayfield is on pace for a 4,000-yard, 30-plus touchdown season, and Chris Godwin is on pace for his best season since his breakout year in 2019. The Bucs have also found a hidden gem in rookie RB Bucky Irving, who did that led the team in rush yards in three of the first four games. But between strong offensive performances in Week 1 and Week 4, the Bucs struggled to move the ball at times against the Lions and Broncos, scoring just seven points in a home loss to Denver. Right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) has not played in the last three games and will miss Thursday due to the short week. The same goes for rookie WR Jalen McMillan, who missed last week’s game. Although Tampa has moved the chains pretty well overall, they are somewhat lacking in the big play department. The Bucs also had some issues in pass protection: Mayfield was sacked 15 times in four games. If they’re having a hard time protecting the Falcons, who rank 32nd in sack rate, then the problem might be bigger than we thought.

2) The Falcons could stand to move Kyle Pitts. The Falcons will honor Matt Ryan at halftime of Thursday’s game and induct him into the team’s Ring of Honor. Maybe Cousins ​​will be able to get Ryan’s ear at some point, if only to help solve the Pitts mystery. Pitts looked like a rising star in 2021 with Ryan at quarterback, catching 68 passes for 1,028 yards in his rookie season, but it took the next two seasons to reach that yardage total. The new team had just as much trouble getting him the ball consistently as the old team. Pitts has eight catches (on 15 targets) for 105 yards and one touchdown this season. Almost half of those yards came on a 50-yard play against the Chiefs in which Pitts was tackled at the 1-yard line. That was a great glimmer of hope, but it was too far-fetched. The Bucs have defended tight ends fairly well this season, allowing just 16 catches for 152 yards and no touchdowns, although Pitts had two of its better games last season against Todd Bowles’ defense, which runs back a lot of that unit’s pieces. The Falcons would like nothing more than for Pitts to break through in prime time in a big division game, which would help open up more options for Cousins ​​and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

3) Tampa’s defense must maintain pass rush momentum. The Buccaneers’ defense didn’t wow the world in the first part of the season, but they deserve credit for hanging in there despite a few injuries. Todd Bowles’ squad fought back against the Eagles, sacking Jalen Hurts six times on Sunday. This was an important development after a subpar performance against the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix. The Bucs also allowed the Lions to easily get up the field in Week 2, but an excellent performance in the red zone (Detroit was 1 for 7 there) helped them to a win. It will be interesting to see if Sunday’s pass rush success impacts this game. The Eagles have been shorthanded on offense, but so have the Falcons, with center Drew Dalman on injured reserve and RT Kaleb McGary potentially out for another game after missing Sunday. Their replacements held up well against the Saints last week, but the Bucs’ front line looked revitalized with the return of NT Vita Vea. Cousins’ new center Ryan Neuzil could have his hands full all night.

4) The Falcons need to make more game-changing plays on defense. One would safely describe defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake’s defense as a unit that bends but doesn’t break. They defend the pass quite well overall, especially downfield, and have only allowed four plays of 20 yards or longer all season. Yes, you can complete passes against them (73.5% completions allowed) and the Falcons’ run defense (145.5 yards allowed per game) can get even stronger. But the biggest problems were sacks and forced turnovers. The Falcons rank last in the NFL with just four sacks, continuing what has been a concern for several years, even with the addition of Matthew Judon, who has a pressure rate of 8.1%, his lowest, according to Next Gen Stats to four games for the first time ever in his career. Grady Jarrett is still a force inside, but it’s been less than a year since he tore his ACL. Atlanta also has just four forced turnovers in four games. In two wins, the Falcons’ turnover margins are plus-2, with Troy Andersen’s 47-yard pick-six on Sunday being a huge turning point; They are minus-3 in their two losses. Opponents were in control of the clock against Atlanta, averaging 35:28 of possession. Forcing turnovers is crucial, but it becomes even more difficult against a Bucs team that has only given up the ball three times and Andersen is out with a knee injury.