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    • Low chances of the Gulf of Mexico system developing
    Washington

    Low chances of the Gulf of Mexico system developing

    Madoc Meredith Posted on

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    The chances of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico have decreased slightly, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

    Hurricane activity has increased again after a brief lull in August. Since Helene’s landfall, three named storms have formed, leaving at least 128 people dead and hundreds still missing.

    Although the system poses a lesser threat in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Kirk is a major hurricane in the Central Atlantic and is growing stronger.

    Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour, making it a strong Category 3 storm, according to the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to become a Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph in the next 12 hours.

    While Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, impacts could be felt as far away as the East Coast of the United States by Sunday.

    Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Leslie is expected to develop into a hurricane west of Africa, and a system approaching the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to bring heavy rain and flooding to Florida, even if it does not become tropical Hurricane develops storm or hurricaneno.

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    Here’s what we know from the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

    Hurricane Tracker: NHC reduces risk from system in Gulf of Mexico

    The system in the Gulf of Mexico, which originates from the western Caribbean, now has fewer chances of development. Strong to gale-force winds are expected to ease Thursday evening and show little change through Saturday. The rough seas caused by the winds slowly subside during this period.

    What else is out there? NHC is tracking Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie

    • Location: 1,130 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,660 miles southwest of the Azores
    • Maximum continuous winds: 125 miles per hour
    • Movement: Northwest at 10 miles per hour

    As of 10 a.m., the center of Hurricane Kirk was 1,130 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

    Kirk is moving northwest at about 10 miles per hour, and this general movement is expected to continue into early Friday. A turn to the north and north-northeast with higher forward speed is forecast for the weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 125 mph, with stronger gusts. Kirk is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Kirk is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph within the next 12 hours.

    Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

    Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

    Special note on spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to create its forecasts.

    Hurricane Tracker: Will Kirk Impact Texas, USA?

    Kirk is expected to grow in size and send ocean waves across the central and western Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said.

    “These waves are likely to increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands through Friday, in Bermuda and the Greater Antilles beginning Saturday, and in the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas beginning Sunday.”

    Kirk poses a major threat to shipping interests, AccuWeather said, adding that the hurricane is “likely to be a long-lived phenomenon, bringing tropical wind and rainstorm impacts to the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, etc could.” Netherlands and Western Europe in general until the middle of next week.

    Where is the expected path of Tropical Storm Leslie?

    • Location: 540 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
    • Maximum sustained wind: 45 miles per hour
    • Movement: West at 5 mph

    As of 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was 540 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

    Leslie is moving west at about 5 miles per hour. Slow westward movement is expected through this evening, followed by slightly faster west-northwestward movement Friday through Saturday.

    The maximum sustained wind has increased to around 45, with stronger gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and Leslie is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in about a day and a strong Category 2 storm within the next five days.

    Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles (72 kilometers) from the center.

    Tropical Storm Leslie Spaghetti Models

    Special note on spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to create its forecasts.

    What impacts can Florida, USA expect from Tropical Storm Leslie?

    According to AccuWeather, Leslie is expected to take a path further west than Kirk but avoid the Caribbean islands. Like Kirk, it will pose a significant problem for transatlantic shipping, but no impact on the mainland is currently expected.

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    Madoc Meredith
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