Alex Bregman He may have played his last game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win capped off a win that ended Houston’s streak of seven consecutive trips to at least the American League Championship Series. That will put the Astros in offseason mode where the focus is on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to make a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a number of occasions that they would discuss the contract after the season ends. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “If you really think about it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of reaching some sort of agreement.”

Of course, with a free agent of this caliber, coming to an agreement is much easier said than done. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player to hit the market. Unless Scott Boras’ customer takes advantage of a significant discount in his hometown, retaining him would likely require the largest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational highlight was the five-year, $151 million extension Jose Altuve signed in spring training 2018.

This sum of $151 million happens to be exactly the extension that Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s contract was for six years, so the average annual value was lower than Altuve’s contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and is a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will reject a qualifying offer if he becomes a free agent. This makes him entitled to compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case with Chapman, who wouldn’t have been able to get a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year age difference and safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above Chapman’s price.

The long-time Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, saying he was focused on the team’s performance. Immediately following his elimination, he largely limited his comments to generalities. When asked if he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “hopes so, but will leave it up to Scott and the team” (X-Link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He then thanked the city on Twitter.

Some of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a customer of Boras Corporation, was particularly adamant that the Astros wanted to keep him. “In my opinion, there’s no chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (posted to X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He’s given a lot to this organization, so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make sure he stays here.” Altuve added that he plans to tell owner Jim Crane personally.

Whether the Astros re-sign Bregman ultimately depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge investment as a free agent. The Astros were satisfied with that George Springer And Carlos Correa Go in earlier off-seasons. The final seasons of arbitration control are upon them Kyle Tucker And Framber Valdezboth tend to have deals in the nine-figure range. Tucker is on track to pass the $200 million mark and could push into the $300 million mark with a great run year.

While Crane was generally averse to long-term contracts, he was not afraid to invest in the team overall. Houston finishes this year with a player payroll of about $244 million, according to a calculation by RosterResource. They amount to around $262 million in luxury tax obligations and thus fall into the second level of punishment.

RosterResource estimates his guaranteed commitments for next season to be around $133 million. Tucker and Valdez are the frontrunners of one of the most expensive arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicts the arbitration group in Houston will cost around $58 million. Trading or non-tendering of Jose Urquidy And Chas McCormick could shave a few million off the ledger, but the Astros will enter the offseason with around $185 million in internal commitments.

Aside from the uncertainty at third base, Houston needs to keep an eye on the rotation and first base. The latter has been a big problem all season. Houston’s rotation settled down later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander And Yusei Kikuchi Hit Free Agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful returnees from injuries Luis García And Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. However, injuries seriously tested the depth before stabilizing things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, so Houston will likely bring in some sort of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb And Zach Dezenzo have taken some offense this season, but they have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews Could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 Triple-A experience so far. Provided the Diamondbacks exercise their option Eugenio Suarezthere are no clear starters for the position in free agency other than Bregman.