Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) assume that newly formed Tropical Storm Leslie is heading towards the East Coast with increasing intensity.

The storm, which currently has winds of 40 miles per hour, is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday.

Leslie (originally Tropical Depression Thirteen) was named after it strengthened to tropical storm strength on Wednesday night after forming in the Central Atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Kirk.

“Strengthening is expected and Leslie is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in a few days,” the NHC said in a public statement. “Slow westward movement is expected tonight, followed by slightly faster west-northwestward movement Friday into Saturday.”

Leslie formed close behind Hurricane Kirk, which is moving further away with increasing speed. This increasing distance between the two storms could contribute to Leslie developing into a hurricane due to reduced wind shear.

“As the distance between Kirk and the slow-moving Leslie increases, the wind shear over Leslie should decrease. “This will create a more favorable environment for the storm to steadily strengthen in a moist environment over warm water,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion.

Low wind shear as well as sea surface temperatures and humidity are key factors that influence whether a storm strengthens into a hurricane and how strong that hurricane could become.

“TCs (tropical cyclones) thrive primarily on the following atmospheric conditions: Warm (sea surface temperatures) (typically the “magic number” for sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures is 80°F) and a sufficiently deep layer of warm water, all sufficient as a key energy source for a TC, (as well as) weak atmospheric winds in the middle and upper levels (since TCs prefer a very vertical and symmetrical structure and do not survive if that structure is tilted in the vertical),” said Zachary Handlos, an atmospheric scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology Newsweek.

“Sufficient moisture in the air in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere, and the accumulation of thunderstorm activity that forms a TC must be at least 5 degrees latitude or further from the equator, as the Earth’s rotation effects will then have an influence.” wind and creating circulation for the TC.”

Hurricane Kirk, now at Category 3 strength with winds of 120 miles per hour, was originally expected to head toward the United States but has since turned north and then northeast and is moving back across the Atlantic toward Ireland and the United Kingdom

Even if Kirk doesn’t reach the US, it could have some impact along the East Coast and trigger strong waves.

“Kirk-generated waves are spreading westward and are expected to reach parts of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and current conditions,” the NHC said.

If Leslie follows the same course as Kirk, the country may not be as strengthened as it could be if it continues on its current path toward the United States

“Leslie’s intensity could plateau thereafter as it follows a similar track to Kirk and meets the cool track left by the hurricane,” the NHC explained.

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