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    • Hurricane Center forecast, path, impacts
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    Hurricane Center forecast, path, impacts

    Caradoc Wyn Posted on

    The next named storms of the season will be Leslie and Milton

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic basin, including one that could threaten Florida or the Gulf Coast as early as this weekend, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

    A tropical disturbance expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression over the weekend. Meteorologists are advising Gulf Coast residents to closely monitor the system as locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula through the weekend.

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    Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin there is Hurricane Kirk and newly formed Tropical Depression 13. Forecasters said Tropical Depression 13 is expected to become a tropical storm this evening and could become a hurricane by the weekend.

    Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday, but is not forecast to pose a threat to Florida or the United States. A major hurricane is a hurricane with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, making it a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm.

    Kirk was the third hurricane since September 25th – after Helene and Isaac. It was the first time in recorded history (since 1851) that the Atlantic experienced three hurricanes between September 25 and October 1, Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin.

    The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season are Leslie and Milton.

    Which hurricane is coming to Florida?

    A hurricane is not currently expected to hit the country, but a tropical depression could form later this week or over the weekend as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.

    It’s too early to tell where it will go or how much it will strengthen, but residents along the entire Gulf Coast have been advised to closely monitor the system and be prepared.

    AccuWeather warned that Florida could be “the main target” for any new system next week.

    Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of Wednesday, October 2nd at 5 p.m.:

    Hurricane Kirk: What you should know

    • Location: 1,165 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles
    • Maximum continuous wind: 90 miles per hour
    • Movement: Northwest at 12 miles per hour

    ➤ Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

    As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Kirk was near latitude 18.9 north and longitude 44.0 west.

    Kirk is moving northwest at about 12 mph and this general movement is expected throughout the day or so, with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest and north through this weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with stronger gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Kirk is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane tomorrow. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

    The waves generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect parts of the Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    Tropical Depression 13 is expected to become a hurricane soon. What you should know

    • Location: 465 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
    • Maximum continuous wind: 35 miles per hour
    • Movement: West at 7 miles per hour

    ➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression 13

    At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 10.5 north and longitude 29.7 west.

    The low pressure area is moving westward at about 11 km/h and this movement is expected to continue over the next few days with a gradual turn from west to northwest.

    Maximum sustained winds will be around 35 mph, with higher gusts.

    Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and the low pressure area could become a hurricane by the end of the week.

    What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

    Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of ​​low pressure is producing disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

    Environmental conditions could support gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico.

    Residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

    Regardless of developments, locally heavy rain could occur in parts of Mexico over the next few days and in parts of the Florida Peninsula through the weekend.

    • Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
    • Chance of education over 7 days: medium, 40 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

    The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

    “If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain in the Central Atlantic and is not expected to pose a threat to Florida or the United States. The waves caused by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect parts of the Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend.

    ➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

    All Gulf Coast residents, including Florida, should consider the system, which shows development potential in the Caribbean. It is too early to determine size, strength or direction, but “a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the coming week,” Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    Invest 91L is still too far from the US to judge whether there will be any impact.

    Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. This advice is particularly important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

    Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    When is hurricane season over?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    When is the peak of hurricane season?

    The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

    Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

    Excessive rainfall forecast

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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    Caradoc Wyn
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