No fear! This isn’t as bad a roster dilemma as you might think for the entire season. And it’s a legitimately smart question if you’re looking to put together a DraftKings DFS lineup for primetime competition tonight NFL $60K Post Pattern ($15K to 1st) (Primetime).

We know it Derrick Henry ($6,800) will determine the volume, goal line touches, etc. Justice Hill’s ($4,800) Most of the work will be between 20% and 20% and will be in drive specific situations that require yards.

However, don’t let that stop you from starting it tonight.

In 2023, Hill ranked 20th among all skilled players in explosive play rate (defined as runs of ten or more yards). With these pieces last year,

Until Keaton Mitchell comes back, Hill is Lamar Jackson’s ($7,500) Guy through the air out of the backfield. This is incredibly valuable. So valuable, in fact, that we can measure it: Hill has an expected team points gain per goal (EPA/tgt) of 0.2. That’s 11th in the league among running backs with at least five goals.

To clarify, I wrote about Hill’s rate metrics before Week 3, and he ranked thirteenth in the league in the above statistic using the same parameters. His performance in last week’s game doubled his EPA/tgt. Just ten days ago it was 0.09.

Buffalo’s pass rush is well above league average. Tonight’s script may have Lamar Jackson checking in more often than he’d like. Think back to Week 1’s primetime game against the Chiefs. Jackson threw Hill and Isaiah probably ($4,300) behind the line of scrimmage with quite a bit of speed.

I really like Hill’s chances of offering great value tonight at $4,800. Explosive players will eventually break off a ball for a touchdown. I like Hill because he has a good chance at paydirt tonight.

Verdict: Start it.

Set yours DraftKings Fantasy football lineups here: NFL $60K Post Pattern ($15K to 1st) (Primetime).

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.

I’m a promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9). Sometimes I play the games I give advice on on my personal account. Although I have expressed my personal opinions on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the opinion(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment when compiling their lineups. I may also use players and strategies other than those recommended above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.