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    • Isaac, Joyce, Tropical Depression 12. Spaghetti Models
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    Isaac, Joyce, Tropical Depression 12. Spaghetti Models

    Madoc Meredith Posted on

    Another major hurricane could strengthen in the Atlantic, but is unlikely to pose a threat to the USA

    The National Hurricane Center is busy tracking five systems in the Atlantic basin.

    The biggest concern for Florida and the U.S. is a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that could develop into a tropical depression later this week as it follows a similar path to Major Hurricane Helene. Meteorologists are advising Gulf Coast residents to closely monitor the system.

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    On the positive side, former Hurricane Isaac and former Tropical Storm Joyce have already weakened and are expected to stay away from Florida and the US

    However, three other systems out there – including the one in the Caribbean – and Tropical Depression 12 in the eastern Atlantic are expected to strengthen in the coming days. The third system is located just off the coast of Africa.

    According to the Hurricane Center, Tropical Depression 12 is expected to become a “large and strong hurricane” later this week. Current models show a curve north into the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US

    Is another hurricane heading for Florida?

    Not at this time, but a tropical depression or storm could form later this week as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.

    Dan DePodwin, senior director of forecasting operations at AccuWeather, said a high pressure system is expected to develop over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which could push any developing tropical storm further west compared to Helene’s path.

    “However, at this early stage, it is still too early to rule out any possibilities regarding future development of a potential tropical storm,” DePodwin said.

    Regardless, residents from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant and monitor events in the Caribbean.

    The next name of the 2024 hurricane season is caused by a tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands, west of Africa.

    The next names of the season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

    Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Monday, Sept. 30:

    Tropical Storm Isaac: What you should know

    • Location: 515 miles west-northwest of the Azores
    • Maximum continuous wind: 65 miles per hour
    • Movement: East-northeast at 15 miles per hour

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaac

    Isaac is slowly weakening and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 230 miles. Isaac poses no threat to the United States

    Tropical Depression Joyce: What You Should Know

    • Location: 910 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
    • Maximum sustained wind: 35 miles per hour
    • Movement: West at 1 mph

    ➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Joyce

    Joyce is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.

    Tropical Depression 12: What you should know

    • Location: 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
    • Maximum continuous wind: 35 miles per hour
    • Movement: West at 8 miles per hour

    ➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression 12

    As of 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression 12 was located near latitude 14.0 north and longitude 34.1 west.

    The low pressure area is moving westward at about 8 miles per hour, and the general west-to-west-northwest motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

    A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds will be around 35 mph, with higher gusts.

    Steady strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

    What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

    Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: An extensive low pressure area over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

    Environmental conditions appear to be conducive to gradual development and a tropical depression could form around the middle of this week as the disturbance slowly moves west-northwest.

    This system is then expected to move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

    Residents of the northwest Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.

    • Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
    • Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 50 percent.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.

    Higher elevation winds are forecast to favor the gradual development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form in the middle or end of this week as it slowly moves west or west-northwest over the Eastern tropical area moves Atlantic.

    • Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
    • Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

    The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

    “If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    Tropical Storms Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Depression 12 are not expected to affect Florida or the United States

    ➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

    All Gulf Coast residents, including Florida, should keep an eye on the unrest that shows potential for development in the Caribbean. It is too early to determine size, strength or direction, but “a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the coming week,” Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    The other tropical wave out there is still too far from the US to determine if it will have an impact

    Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. This advice is particularly important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

    There is no threat of landfall from new storms in the tropics on Sunday.

    Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    When is hurricane season over?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    When is the peak of hurricane season?

    The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

    Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

    Excessive rainfall forecast

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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    Madoc Meredith
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