NEW YORK – As a two-strike fastball from Paul Skenes whizzed toward him, New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto recognized it as a ball and began backing away from the plate. In an age where almost everything is controversial, the overwhelming consensus is that Soto has the best eye of any hitter in baseball. This time he had been deceived. Soto ripped his front elbow out of danger. But the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rookie phenom had hit the mark with a 100-mph heater.

Skenes struck out three in a shortened start Saturday, and each one was a kiss from his own chef. Seeing Soto and Aaron Judge for the first time since the start of the All-Star Game, Skenes caught Soto’s eye and whipped a sweeper past Judge’s bat for strike three. Then, for the final time of his rookie season, Skenes sent Jazz Chisholm Jr. the same way Soto did, with a triple-digit fastball that bounced back to the inside corner for third.

“If you’re able to shoot fastballs to the arm side,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said, “then you’re in a different category.”

This was the final pitch of Paul Skenes’ rookie season…

Absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/sWmIMmvkE4

– MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2024

The 22-year-old Skenes is actually in a category of his own. Despite spending the first six weeks of the season in Triple A, Skenes authored the most dominant season of any rookie starter in the last 50 years.

In a 9-4 Pirates win on Saturday, Skenes started against Yankees right-hander Luis Gil in a duel of Rookie of the Year frontrunners, pitched two perfect innings and then walked off the field with a smile. He finished the season 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA over 133 innings, with 170 strikeouts and 32 walks.

According to ERA+, which takes league and park factors into account, the last starter with a comparable rookie season to Skenes (211 ERA+) did so 51 years ago – Montreal Expos righty Steve Rogers (245 ERA+), who started just 17 games in 1973. but this one ended seven of them, with an ERA of 1.54 in 134 innings.

Since then…

Among those left off the list are Rookie of the Year winners Dwight Gooden (137 ERA+), Fernando Valenzuela (135) and Kerry Wood (129).

“(Skenes) was one of the great stories in Major League Baseball this year – first pick, doesn’t break camp and then starts the All-Star Game,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said before Saturday’s game. “He obviously had a phenomenal year. I think our guys are excited to compete against him.

“He is a player who has truly taken the league by storm and has developed into one of the game’s standout starters.”

The story of Skenes’ rookie season is best told in bullet points:

• Since 2000, nine starters have had a sub-2 ERA in at least 130 innings in a season: Pedro Martínez, Roger Clemens, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and now Skenes.

• Skenes is the fourth pitcher in MLB history with an ERA below 2 and at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

• He is the second pitcher since 1913 with an ERA below 2 in 23 starts.

• He is the fifth rookie since 1900 with at least 150 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks.

• Skenes allowed six hits or fewer in all 23 starts, the third-longest streak in history.

• Since his debut on May 11, Skenes leads all starters in ERA (1.96), strikeout rate (32.9 percent), average fastball velocity (98.9 mph) and added win probability (3, 71) and ranks second in WHIP (0.95), opponent batting average (.198), FIP (2.48) and strikeout-minus-walk rate (26.6 percent).

From his first major league pitch on May 11 at 4:07 p.m., a four-seater at 101 mph, to his final pitch on Saturday in the Bronx, a four-seater at 100 mph, Skenes has been for the Pirates delivered. He threw six hitless innings in his second start and seven hitless innings in his eleventh start. He shot past Shohei Ohtani at 101 miles per hour. He started the All-Star Game. Skenes allowed two or fewer earned runs in 20 of 23 starts and remained remarkably consistent even as the Pirates’ playoff chances collapsed in August.

Skenes will earn a full year of service if he finishes in the top two in NL Rookie of the Year voting. So his brilliance will land him in free agency after five more seasons, not six. The Pirates made no attempts to shut down Skenes or severely limit his innings late in the season, moves that would have damaged his reputation as Rookie of the Year. Shelton has had several successes in recent weeks as Skenes won against Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio.

“He’s doing things we haven’t seen anyone do before,” Shelton said Saturday. “Since he’s been here, it’s hard to argue that he’s not only been rookie of the year, but one of the best pitchers in baseball. To have an ERA under 2 in your first year, especially in this day and age, is pretty special.”

Early in his career, Shelton was paired with several outstanding young pitchers: CC Sabathia in Cleveland; David Price, Chris Archer and Snell in Tampa; Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Nobody was as well received as Skenes. “That’s a pretty good group,” Shelton said, “and I’d see him at the top of the list.”

The Skenes effect was evident on Pittsburgh’s North Shore this summer. Skenes officiated seven of the Pirates’ 20 most-attended home games this season. The average attendance at PNC Park for Skenes launches was 25,460. On any other day: 20,504.

The Pirates had several high-profile pitching debuts in the 2010s — Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller — but none were as capable of devastating opposing lineups as Skenes. In fact, the Pirates hadn’t seen anything like this from a rookie starter since Chester A. Arthur’s tenure, as only Denny Driscoll had a better ERA (1.21) or ERA+ (218) in 23 starts in a season in 1882 as Skenes.

The Pirates didn’t have a starter in the live-ball era, started at least 23 games, and have a lower ERA or a higher ERA+ than Skenes.

Next period: 1968, Bob Veale, 2.05

Next ERA+: 1977, John Candelaria, 169

Skenes struck out 32.9 percent of batters this season, more than any other right-handed starter in the sport, by spewing gas and ripping splinkers – a sinker/splitter hybrid that Skenes accidentally caught while catching after last year’s draft snapped. The splinker enhanced a pitch mix that had troubled some evaluators, who felt Skenes relied too heavily on a flat fastball and a sweeping slider. Opposing batters were stunned by the splinker, batting .184 with a .234 slugging percentage against the pitch.

When asked what stood out to him about Skenes, Boone pointed to “the size and power and the ease with which he generates things – and then also the cool names for his pitches.” Boone added, “He’s so big and generates so much force without giving the impression that he is exerting himself to the maximum effort.”

Skenes averaged 98.9 mph with his four-seam fastball. He reached triple figures 100 times, more than twice as often as any other starter. But it was his ability to sequence and play his mix six pitches deep that was so impressive during the stretch run. At key moments in September, he turned to his move. He reduced his fastball usage and attacked Soto and Chisholm with heat right under the hands in his last start.

Paul Skenes roasts Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/V2rzmqsIlq

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024

What will his manager remember from Skenes’ rookie season?

“The fact that he kept getting better,” Shelton said.

Skenes has allowed four earned runs in his last seven starts.

Skenes had the most dominant rookie season of any starter since Steve Rogers, but not the most valuable. This is a more complicated case.

Skenes entered Saturday with 5.8 WAR, 20th among rookie starters in the live-ball era, according to Baseball Reference. Brandon Webb, José Fernández and Michael Soroka are all higher on the list. In 1st place with a complete win is Mark Fidrych: 9.6 WAR. Fidrych had an ERA of 2.45 and an ERA+ of 159 over 250 1/3 innings for the 1976 Tigers. Skenes didn’t get closer than 100 innings to Fidrych.

When it comes to WAR, The Bird still stands alone.

And yet, if Skenes had been on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, things could have been a lot tighter. With 10 more starts at this rate, Skenes would have a WAR of 8.4, third among rookie starters in the live-ball era.

*Estimate based on Skenes’ pace in 22 starts

When asked after his start on Saturday whether he had met his expectations for 2024, the ever-reserved Skenes said he didn’t bring many expectations into the season. He just wanted to take the ball every fifth day.

“I don’t know what else I could have done,” Skenes said, “but I’m definitely happy with how this season went.”

Overall, Skenes threw 160 innings between the minors and majors this season. That seems to have always been the number chosen by the Pirates. Shelton met Skenes two weeks ago in St. Louis and said he would go five innings against the Reds and two against the Yankees in his last two starts.

Skenes would have preferred to throw without restrictions this season – the late start effectively prevented him from claiming the ERA title or competing for the NL Cy Young Award – but the Pirates managed to keep him healthy and ready for a bigger one “We didn’t know if (the plan) would be perfect,” Shelton said. “I don’t know if anyone did. I realize people will be critical because they wanted to see it.”

Skenes has two goals for next season. The first is a repetition.

“Just take the ball and throw,” he said.

The second?

“Win a lot of baseball games.”

(Photo: Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)