After a hard-fought road win in Dallas in Week 3, the Ravens were finally able to set a winning record.

Now they return home to host the undefeated Bills on Sunday night in a matchup between two AFC contenders.

Can the Ravens get back to .500 after a slow start, or will Buffalo extend its winning streak to four games?

Let’s break down the match and offer our best bets:

VS. SPREAD

Despite a record of 3-0 and a league average of 37.3 points per game, the Bills go into this duel as the away outsiders with 2.5 points.

Let’s start by tearing down the Ravens’ defense, which didn’t look nearly as solid as it did last season, a testament to the work former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald did in Baltimore. Last season, the Ravens had Pro Football Focus’ second-best defense (89.8) and held opponents to just 16.2 points (the fewest in the NFL) on the fourth-fewest total yards per game.

Still, they have the tenth-best defense (69.0) and are allowing the ninth-most points per game through the first three weeks. Their run defense is the best in the league after three weeks, with opponents averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.

The biggest problem for the Ravens, however, was the secondary, which was a problem against a Bills team that was just 47 points behind Jacksonville.

Buffalo should be aggressive offensively out of the gate to put pressure on the Ravens to keep up. If they exit early, the Ravens will have to abandon their rush-first identity and instead rely on a pass-heavy offense to get back into games. And that won’t work against this Bills team.

Stats you should know: Allen has a career mark of 17-9 ATS in his first four games of the season and just 37-38-5 ATS in Game 5 or later.

Pick: Bills +2.5 (-110, Caesars)

TOTAL POINTS

The sports betting providers are expecting a relatively high-scoring game with a consensus total of 46.5 points.

Buffalo has been fantastic at running the ball this season, but it faces PFF’s third-best run defense and would therefore prefer to keep the ball in Josh Allen’s hands as much as possible.

The Bills’ game plan calls for Allen to play against a Baltimore secondary that hasn’t yet proven its ability to stop elite or even above-average offensive units.

Although Allen didn’t throw the ball much in the first two games, he still managed to rank second in big throws and big throw percentage and seventh in adjusted completion percentage per PFF.

Betting on the NFL?

He did all of this without his two top receivers from last year’s team, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The lack of skilled talent in Buffalo is no longer the problem it once was.

The over is slightly tilted here.

Stat you should know: The Bills and Ravens combined are averaging 14.5 more points per game (61) than they did overall in this matchup (46.5).

Pick: Over 46.5 points (-110, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton hinders the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved an outstanding 14.1% ROI by cashing in 60% of his NBA spread picks and led Tallysight in the SportsIQ metric.