Once the CAG re-establishes itself over the next few days, convection originating near Panama could be pushed northward around the broader circulation into the northwestern Caribbean. By mid to late next week, this system could also take advantage of the still favorable upper level environment and develop into a tropical storm. The models that were better at predicting Helene’s evolution through a similar mechanism are more optimistic about this possibility.

At this distance and with no actual disturbances observed, I would simply say that it is perhaps slightly more likely that something develops in the Caribbean at some point in the next 4 to 8 days, although not a certainty. This is of course worrying as a steering ridge over the western Atlantic would in turn mean that whatever develops is likely to move northwest into the Gulf by the end of next week.

Steering favors the eastern Gulf track with the likelihood of shear

In the longer term, the forecast is extremely uncertain, as is always the case with disturbances that have not yet developed. In about a week, most reliable global ensemble models show a deep and severe dip in the jet stream entering the eastern United States.

This would tend to favor anything that eventually forms in a northeast or east-northeast direction over the eastern Gulf, more strongly than Helene’s north-northeast track.